The launch date of the Cancun upgrade mainnet has been determined: March 13th. Here are some thoughts:
1) The impact and effects of the Cancun upgrade have already begun. The EIP4844 mainnet is online and Blob block data is put into use. These implications are more for the B-side, allowing layer2 to reduce the additional restrictions and resistance of the mainnet, and for the C-side Users may feel that the Gas fee is not too high. It is possible that layer 2 will increase the amount of data submitted and increase Gas consumption to compete for Blob space;
2) The Cancun upgrade will not change the market’s demand for low-cost “one-click chain publishing”. Competition in modular DA, shared Sequencer and General-Purpose Prover system component services will be more stimulating, and more layer2 chains based on modular construction will will emerge, because no matter how low the main chain interaction cost is, it is not as cost-effective as third-party modular services, and the story of to VC is also easier to tell;
3) The impact of the Cancun upgrade on ZK-Rollup is greater than that of OP-Rollup. Although the costs are generally reduced, OP-Rollup is more dependent on mainnet data. In theory, with the same Blob block capacity, ZK- Rollup's TPS will be higher, and the cost will be evenly distributed and lower. The ZK-Rollup ecosystem will usher in rapid growth after the upgrade in Cancun, which will at least reduce the gap with the OP-Rollup camp;
4) The Cancun upgrade will be a process of reshuffling layer2. Excellent comprehensive layer2 will improve legitimacy and ecology. The tail layer2 will still sing the modular to VC story. A large number of waist layer2 will continue to challenge the technology of head layer2. Innovation and flexible Tokenomics bring vitality to the market; of course, the market is highly competitive and reshuffle of the fittest is inevitable;
5) The Cancun upgrade may be the last catalyst that the Ethereum main network can bring to layer 2. Without the limitations of the main network’s technical shortcomings, layer 2’s moat will become a test of their respective “operational strengths”. After all, the meaning of expansion is It is more about bringing incremental users and enriching the developer ecosystem. After the Cancun upgrade, layer2 can no longer escape the fact that ecological development is weak, and the hard nut of ecology must be broken.
