According to Jinshi Data, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) said that Australia's CPI in the second quarter of 2024 has attracted much attention as a key data point in the near future. It is expected that the adjusted average inflation rate in the second quarter will increase by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year.
CBA believes this will give the RBA enough breathing room to keep interest rates unchanged, although this is slightly higher than their implied forecast of 0.8% month-on-month growth. If the quarterly rate is recorded at 1.0%, it will be in a "grey area" where they may keep interest rates unchanged or increase them depending on the details of the components.
A reading of 1.1% or above would test the resolve of the RBA board and change the likelihood of a rate hike.