From December 2017 to January 2018, BTC reached a high of around 20,000
From December 2018 to January 2019, the lowest price was around 3000u
In April-May and October-November 21, BTC reached a high of 68,000
From November to December 22, the lowest is around 16,000
#BTC☀ #BTC走势预测 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #BTC15万
MVRV
introduce
The MVRV-Z score is a relative indicator, which is the "circulating market value" of Bitcoin minus the "realized market value", and then normalized by the circulating market value standard. The formula is:
MVRV-Z Score = (Circulating Market Value - Realized Market Value) / Standard Deviation (Circulating Market Value)
The "realized market value" is based on the value of transactions on the Bitcoin chain, and is calculated by adding up the "last moved value" of all Bitcoins on the chain. Therefore, when this indicator is too high, it means that the market value of Bitcoin is overestimated relative to the actual value, which is unfavorable to the price of Bitcoin; on the contrary, it is underestimated. According to past historical experience, when this indicator is at a historical high, the probability of Bitcoin prices showing a downward trend increases, and you must pay attention to the risk of chasing high prices.
Time value comparison
ahr999
introduce
When the ahr999 index < 0.45, you can buy at the bottom;
When ahr999 is between 0.45-1.2, it is suitable for fixed investment;
When ahr999 >1.2, the currency price is already relatively high and is not suitable for operation.
From a long-term perspective, the price of Bitcoin shows a certain positive correlation with the block height. At the same time, with the advantages of the fixed investment method, users can control the short-term fixed investment costs so that most of them are below the price of Bitcoin.
Time value comparison
BTC Bubble Index
introduce
Bubble index = f(price, 60-day increase, public opinion, computing difficulty, number of active addresses, number of network transfers)
The higher the bubble index is, the more the current BTC price deviates from the comprehensive heat of the trading market, on-chain network, public opinion attention, etc.; when the bubble index is negative, it may be a good time to buy.
Time value comparison
Escape Index
introduce
The two-year MA Multiplier indicator is designed to be used as a long-term investment tool, and it highlights periods during which buying and selling Bitcoin would produce huge returns.
To do this, it uses the 2 Year Moving Average (730 day equivalent, green line), and the 5-fold product of that moving average (red line).
Historically:
When the price falls below the 2-year moving average (green line), it is a dip buying signal and buying Bitcoin will generate excess returns.
When the price exceeds the 2-year moving average x5 (red line), it is a sell signal to escape the top, and selling Bitcoin will generate greater profits.
Time value comparison
BTC Rainbow Chart
introduce
What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Indicator?
The Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin. It uses a logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin.
It overlays a rainbow colored band on top of a logarithmic growth curve channel, attempting to highlight the market sentiment of each rainbow colored phase as price passes through it. Therefore highlighting potential buy and sell opportunities.
So far, the Bitcoin price continues to remain within the rainbow bands of the logarithmic growth channel.
How to Read a Rainbow Chart
Since Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset class, its price action is highly volatile. Although on a macro timeline Bitcoin is gaining adoption, as we can see from the overall price increase, it does go through market cycles. During these market cycles, the price of Bitcoin can rise parabolically or fall rapidly. It also has very high daily volatility, which investors need to be aware of.
The BTC Rainbow Chart highlights where the BTC price is during these cycles and provides perspective on investor strategy. As stated earlier in this article, this chart and its legend labels are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
The warmer colors above the rainbow chart show when the market may be overheating. History has proven that these periods are great times for strategic investors to start taking profits.
When prices drop to cooler colors today, overall market sentiment is usually depressed and many investors are not interested in Bitcoin. The rainbow chart highlights that these periods are usually excellent times for strategic investors to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Time value comparison
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
introduce
Historically, the Pi Cycle High Indicator has effectively picked the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.
It uses the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350-day moving average, 350DMA x 2.
Note: The multiple is the price value of the 350DMA, not the number of days.
In the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moved upwards and crossed over the 350DMA x 2, we saw that it coincided with Bitcoin peak prices.
Interestingly, 350/111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, this is the closest value to Pi that we can get by dividing 350 by another integer.
It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price behavior over the long term. Although in this case, its accuracy over the past 7 years has been quite high.
The Pi Cycle Top can be used to indicate when the market is overheated. So overheated that the short-term moving average, i.e. the 111-day moving average, has reached 2 times the 350-day moving average. Historically, it has been advantageous to sell Bitcoin at this point in the Bitcoin price cycle.
Time value comparison
Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier
introduce
The Golden Ratio Multiplier explores Bitcoin's adoption curve and market cycles to understand how the price will perform over the medium to long term. To do this, it uses multiples of the 350-day moving average (350DMA) of Bitcoin's price to identify potential price swing resistance areas. Note: The 350DMA price is a multiple, not a number of days.
The multiples reference the golden ratio (1.6) and the Fibonacci numbers (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21). These are important mathematical numbers.
Over time, these specific 350DMA multiplications have been very effective in picking intra-cycle highs in Bitcoin price as well as major market cycle highs.
As Bitcoin has gained adoption over time, its market cycle highs have fallen below the Fibonacci sequence multiples of the 350DMA. This is because the explosive growth of Bitcoin on a logarithmic scale is slowing down over time. As the market cap increases, it becomes more difficult to maintain the same logarithmic scale growth rate.
If this descending Fibonacci pattern continues to play out as it has for the past 9 years, the next market cycle high will be with price within the 350DMA x3 area.
The Golden Ratio Multiplier is an effective tool because it is able to demonstrate when the market may be overextended in the context of the growth and market cycles of the Bitcoin adoption curve.
Time value comparison
200-week moving average heat map
introduce
Historically, during each major market cycle, Bitcoin’s price has bottomed near its 200-week moving average.
This indicator uses a colored heatmap of percentage growth based on a 200-week moving average.
A color is assigned to the price chart based on the month-over-month percentage increase of the 200-week moving average.
How to use
Long-term Bitcoin investors can monitor the monthly color changes. Historically, when we see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, it is a good time to sell Bitcoin because the market is overheated. The period when the price point is purple and close to the 200-week MA has always been a good time to buy.
Time value comparison
