CoinVoice recently learned that Greeks.live macro researcher Adam published an analysis on the X platform, saying that the Fed’s interest rate decision will be released in three hours. According to the current futures data, there is a 60% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. All markets are focused on this.
From the perspective of cryptocurrency options data, the market divergence is also huge. The IV of ultra-short-term options is as high as 70%, and the IV of put options is significantly higher. From the distribution of option transactions, BTC 58,000 put and ETH 2,200 put transactions are the most intensive. At present, the options market is bearish on the interest rate meeting as a whole. 25 basis points are lower than expected, and 50 basis points indicate that economic indicators are deteriorating. [Original link]