Last night, after the opening of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin suddenly stood up and soared directly. Unfortunately, only Bitcoin rose. The price rebounded from 57,500 to above 60,000. It is suspected that the expectation of interest rate cuts was hyped. However, it is important to remember that interest rate cuts do not necessarily lead to price increases. If there is a sudden economic recession, it will be over. The prices of most other coins are still at the price of 58,000 Bitcoin, which makes people who play altcoins very frustrated.
There is nothing weaker than ETH. The slogan of group members, "When in doubt, short Ether", is being realized. The exchange rate is always falling. SOL is also relatively weak. It is always at the forefront. It will not fall that hard, and it will rise, but not too exaggeratedly. There is no good news. It will rise, but it cannot rise higher. It will fall sharply if it falls. What is the use of copycats?
There are still 12 hours before the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut. Big fluctuations are coming. Friends who are unsure should exit and wait and see in time. Do not use high leverage, as the market will definitely go up and down at night.
Fed Chairman Powell is definitely a master of expectation management and a good market maker. This time, Powell has two core goals for the rate cut: 1. Start cutting interest rates 2. Avoid letting the market fall into recession expectations.
Without Powell's expectation management, the market discussion would still revolve around the two buttons of "rate cut" or "no rate cut". Rate cuts are naturally good, but the market will fluctuate greatly after each rate cut, and the stock market will fall soon after, and the market is worried that a recession is coming. However, the current market discussion has completely shifted to 25bp or 50bp, and some voices are calling for 75bp. The "no rate cut" button has been deducted. In this way, if the rate is cut by 25bp, the market will not think that a recession is coming. A rate cut of 50bp is likely to be interpreted as a recession.
Based on the above logic, I still think there is a high probability of a 25bp rate cut. The significance of 50bp or 75bp is just a bait for expectation management.
For the market, whether the interest rate is cut by 25% or 50%, the difference is not that big. The most important thing is the significance of "starting the interest rate cut". The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the world's central banks. Once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, it means that the global market will enter a loose cycle, and other countries can cut interest rates more confidently.
As for the market, we'd better pray for a 25bp rate cut and a steady rise. It's healthier.
Powell's expectation management reminds me of a little story: What if you want to open a window on the wall of the house next door? If you directly ask for a window, you will definitely be rejected. Then you can talk about opening a door first, and then pretend to compromise at the end: a compromise solution, open a window, both sides can accept it.
For the market, whether the interest rate is cut by 25 or 50, the difference is not that big. The most important thing is the significance of "starting the interest rate cut". The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the world's central banks. Once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, it means that the global market will enter a loose cycle, and other countries can cut interest rates more confidently. For the market, we'd better pray for a 25bp cut in interest rates and a steady rise. It's healthier.
Powell’s expectation management reminds me of a little story: What if you want to open a window on the wall of the house next door? If you directly ask for a window, you will definitely be rejected. Then you can talk about opening a door first, and then pretend to compromise at the end: a compromise solution, open a window, both parties can accept it.
Another thing is the early voting in Pennsylvania. Trump also called on everyone to vote on Twitter today. The voting in Pennsylvania ends on October 21. During this period, some news will be leaked from time to time, which will also affect the short-term market. Everyone can pay attention to it.
Finally, let me say something off topic: Many people in the cryptocurrency circle cannot withstand the doubts of their family members, the misleading of relatives and friends, and the brainwashing of group friends who sing bearish songs every day. They do not have absolute confidence in their holdings, and do not have the absolute determination to resolutely reject the temptation of "hundred-fold altcoins" and "thousand-fold meme coins". They will only continue to lose BTC in their hands, less and less...
Now 1 BTC is a top luxury item.
For most commodities, the cheaper the price, the more people buy them. However, for some things, the harder it is to own, the more people want to own them. Today, the difficulty of owning 1 BTC has already surpassed that of owning the world's most advanced mobile phone.
In the future, owning 1 BTC will be more difficult than owning the world's most advanced car, the world's most livable house, and more difficult than owning a BTC.
You should know that the total amount of BTC is only 21 million. And the number of millionaires in the world is about 60-80 million. Not counting the BTC that is lost or hoarded by big players, if 21 million BTC are evenly distributed to these millionaires, and their 1 million dollars are converted into 1 BTC, only 3-4 people can get 1 BTC.
So even if 1 BTC = 1 million USD, is that expensive? Will there be a lack of demand? Not at all. Not expensive at all.
If you are not a millionaire now, but you are lucky enough to participate in the historical process of BTC and own 1 BTC in advance, then in the future you will definitely be among the world's millionaires - as long as you don't lose your BTC in the process.
If you become one of the world's millionaires, you will inevitably be among the top 1% of the world's nearly 8 billion people.
