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In the past few days, the only thing left for speculation is the interest rate cut, but the market sentiment is cold. Why? Because players have been led by the nose by the interest rate cut again and again, and they are really tired!
Let’s summarize the subsequent market trends:
① If there is no interest rate cut, everything will be empty, which is a big negative;
② A 25bp cut is in line with expectations, but it is not as good as the target, which is a small negative;
③ A 50bp cut is beyond expectations, and it rises first and then falls, which is still a negative!
Many people don’t understand why even a 50bp interest rate cut is a negative. A 50bq cut will definitely greatly stimulate market sentiment in the short term, and a rebound is inevitable, but investors will find that there must be a big problem with the US economy when they come to their senses. In the short term, it is bound to trigger risk aversion in the global financial market. It is also difficult for the currency circle to be immune, and a short-term sell-off after the rebound is inevitable!