I just read a point of view for reference.
First, don't hope that the United States will cut interest rates, and China's economy will improve. Capital will not buy Chinese assets because they are cheap. Capital will only buy because of price expectations. my country's bond rate has been falling again and again, reflecting that our society and corporate income-generating ability is declining sharply. More often, corporate competition is ineffective internal circulation. More attention should be paid to the domestic economic situation rather than hope for changes in the overseas economy.
Second, residents only deposit but do not lend, and repay loans in advance, similar to Japan's lost 30 years.
Third, capital outflows indicate foreign growth.
Fourth, the growth of aging industries cannot offset the consumption regression caused by the decline in birth rates.
Fifth, we are in the middle of consumption downgrade, far from the bottom. The wealth tide brought by real estate growth has completed consumption upgrades rather than relying on labor growth. Consumption upgrades are fragile and unsustainable. With the decline in real estate prices and the wave of corporate cost reduction and efficiency improvement, consumption will continue to downgrade.
Sixth, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the risk-free interest rate is still 2 points higher than the domestic interest rate.
The domestic economy is not lacking confidence, but lacking demand. I hope that my country's economy will get out of trouble as soon as possible.