The market rebounded significantly last night, driven by the violent rise in U.S. stocks, resulting in the liquidation of short orders reaching US$120 million. From a technical perspective, the current support level of $52,500 has been effectively confirmed in the second test. Despite this, the market's volume and other technical indicators show that the rebound is not strong enough, and we still need to remain cautious in the short term.
In the 4-hour technical analysis, $59,000 has now become a key resistance level. If the market can successfully break through this level, the next resistance point will be $63,000. This position will become a key point to determine whether the subsequent market will continue to rise. Investors should remain in awe of the market, stay away from high-leverage contract operations, continue to hold spot assets, and maintain their enthusiasm for learning about the market.
Judging from the current market trend, the technical repair is basically completed. In the short term, we need to observe whether the market can stabilize around $56,000. At the same time, today's US presidential candidate debate may also cause fluctuations in the market, so we should pay special attention to the development of this event.
At present, the market has broken through the 4-hour downward trend line since August 26, and 80% of the recent decline has been corrected. According to this trend, there is a high probability that this wave of continuous decline has ended and market sentiment has eased to a certain extent. Although it is unlikely that a major upward wave will appear in the short term, the daily level is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and investors can be relatively at ease for a while.
Historically, interest rate cuts are usually over-anticipated by the market. When the actual rate cut is implemented, the market has often reacted in advance, so the increase is relatively limited, and there may be a correction after the market digests it. This kind of "hot expectations, cold facts" situation, like the Bitcoin ETF and halving market you mentioned, is not uncommon in the cryptocurrency circle.
As for the arrival of a bull market, it may not only rely on the impact of interest rate cuts, but also require a series of macroeconomic policies and improvements in the market environment. You mentioned the possibility of Trump returning to power and his policies to stimulate consumption. This change in the macro environment may indeed have a long-term positive impact on the crypto market. Policies such as stimulating consumption, relaxing financial supervision, and increasing liquidity may cause funds to flow into the crypto market again, drive a new wave of investment, and start a real bull market.
The launch of a bull market depends not only on policies, but also on a high degree of market sentiment and a large influx of funds. From the current market perspective, although there has been a restorative rebound, it will take some time and conditions to fully enter the bull market stage.
Despite today’s rebound, there are still fewer potential catalysts for Bitcoin at this time. August and September are typically weak months for Bitcoin prices, while October and the fourth quarter tend to be more favorable for price action. In the weeks leading up to the fourth quarter, Bitcoin bulls may have to rely on potential catalysts outside of the cryptocurrency, including employment data, inflation data, Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
So far, Trump has shown a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, and this week Trump and Harris will have a presidential candidate debate. In addition, the US government will release August CPI data on Wednesday evening (September 11), which may increase market volatility.
Some institutions appear to believe that the market has bottomed out and are taking the opportunity to increase their bullish bets for December and March, including buying large quantities of Bitcoin call options expiring in March 2025 with strike prices of $85,000, $100,000 and $120,000.
September could be an interesting month for projects related to Binance and its blockchain. At the end of September, CZ, the former head of Binance, will be released from prison. Although CZ may be banned from managing the company in the future, he is still a holder of many projects. His release from prison may stimulate a surge in Binance investment projects and have a positive impact on the related cryptocurrency market.
