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┇ Multi╮ Quiet period before FOMC meeting ➠ Volatility ┇
┇ Short┆ Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points vs. 50 basis points ➠ Volatility ┇
┇ 建┆ Economic hard landing VS soft landing ➠ Volatility ┇
┇ 仓╰ Trump VS Harris debate ➠ 流体 ┇
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☘️September is the golden month, which has historically been the month of rebound after a sharp decline.
What will happen in September of 24 years?
This week is a good time to build long and short positions, but there are relatively high risks.
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🔸Macroeconomics
The US economy added only 142,000 jobs in the latest non-farm payrolls report, a sharp drop from previous months and below the forecast of 170,000. The slowdown in job growth reflects a cooling labor market, but it is not enough to prompt the Fed to consider a sharp 50 basis point rate cut in the short term. Although the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.8%, wage growth remained stable, indicating that consumer spending is resilient. The unemployment rate, employment volume, and annual and monthly wage rates are basically good, which reflects that the US economy has a certain degree of resilience. It is too early to say that the economy is in recession.
Market reaction was mixed, with the dollar initially falling and bond yields reversing as investors digested the data. Stocks also saw some volatility but have since stabilized, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed's future moves. Despite the weak jobs data, inflation concerns remain, and the possibility of another rate hike is not ruled out, but the tone is more cautious.
Expect more volatility this week. As the Fed has no clear direction, traders are paying more attention to the Fed's speech and inflation data. Expect volatility in the dollar, yen and euro, and be prepared for a sharp market correction if inflation data unexpectedly rises or the Fed takes a more hawkish stance than expected.
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🔸Market Sentiment
Alternative data shows that the crypto market fear and greed index has dropped to 23 (from 29 yesterday), and market sentiment is currently in "extreme fear."
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🔸Long and short liquidation price
BTC long liquidation price is around 51560
ETH long liquidation price is around 2160
SOL long liquidation price is around 118
The above long-term liquidation prices are all lower than one-fifth of the short-term liquidation prices. The banker may make money from both long and short positions.
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🔹BTC Weekly Analysis
Due to the continuous selling by Grayscale, Ethereum Foundation, Vitalik Buterin, hackers, etc., BTC has entered a downward channel, and there is currently no obvious signal to stop the decline.
➥BTC weekly support range: 50560～51560
Short-term funds entering the market in August have almost sold off at this time. BTC fluctuates up and down, causing mid-term investors to wait and see. Small retail investors are forced to stop losses as the market makers rush back and forth. If the 5w decline cannot stop BTC, it will move towards 45600. The air force liquidation price has always been the big meat that the market makers want to eat, and the bottom needs to be further polished. The darkness before dawn is just a necessary path. You need to be patient and wait for a weekly sprint before going long! BTC cannot fall below the 50k integer mark this week.
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🔹ETH Weekly Analysis
The already weak ETH has brought the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin to the bottom again. At the beginning of the year, they emphasized that the pledge of some junk projects would lead to huge pressure from Ethereum selling in the future, and it turned out to be correct!
➥ETH downward range: 2160～2030 (the integer level will most likely be maintained for a wave) If it falls further, it will go to 1800
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🔹SOL Weekly Solution
Capital has intervened in SOL, and the first wave of dividends has been very comfortable. There will be at least another climax, so SOL's stabilization of the decline may once again lead to the arrival of the copycat season.
➥SOL downward range: 100 will have an integer barrier and the long army will defend it, and the 80-94 range has strong consensus support
☞ You can try to place orders with stop loss in the above range
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🌈 Conclusion
Last week's data showed that the market generally believed that a 25 basis point rate cut was more reasonable. I personally think that it is more in line with the evolution of the market scenario. A 50 basis point rate cut has strong conditions for extreme market reversal and harvesting the market. Therefore, the US will definitely harvest a wave of market leeks when it releases this news.
The recent increase in long-term holders and the decrease in long-term holder selling. Similar historical increases in long-term holder supply show that this usually occurs during the transition to a bear market.
The short-term holder group continues to experience high unrealized losses, indicating that they are the group with the most risk at present and will be a source of pressure if the market declines.
☞When the market direction is consistent and unified, it indicates that the market reversal may occur at any time
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⛵Next week's big events
The United States will release August CPI data next week, which may be important information for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.
✰ Monday 23:00 US August New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast
✰ US August CPI data at 20:30 on Wednesday
✰ US unemployment benefits at 20:30 on Thursday
✰ Friday 22:00 US September one-year inflation rate forecast initial value
