Original article by: André Beganski
原文标题：Bitcoin Usually Suffers in September—But 'Uptober' Is Right Around the Corner
Original source: Decrypt
Compiled by: Koala, Mars Finance
Bitcoin prices have been trading at historic lows this month, reflecting Wall Street’s “September effect.” But brighter days are coming.
September has historically been a tough month for the U.S. stock market, and the so-called “September effect” may be just as prevalent for the Bitcoin market — and the first week of Bitcoin’s price action supports that theory.
The Wall Street phenomenon has been widely documented for nearly a century. According to Open Markets, the S&P 500 has fallen 55% of the time in September since 1929, making it "by far the worst month for declines and the only month in the past 94 years to have fallen by at least 50%."
The analysis cited traders' vacation schedules and financial firms' fiscal calendars as potential factors.
Bitcoin’s rally was relatively short-lived. However, the market experienced significant weakness in the first month of the decline. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin’s price has fallen in September eight times since 2013.
This month, Bitcoin prices are starting to fall by more than 8%, a larger drop than the 5% average drop over the past decade. Since 2013, September is one of only two months with a drop in average prices, with June being the only month with a drop in average prices over that period, at -0.35%. On average, September is Bitcoin’s worst month over the past decade.
Although Bitcoin has only risen in September three times since 2013, Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at market maker Wintermute, told Decrypt that this downward trend is far from good news.
“While the market likes to focus on the ‘September effect’ because of its historical performance, the small sample size makes it difficult to use it as a leading indicator,” he said, noting that Bitcoin returned nearly 4% last September.
Ostrovskis noted that several other factors driving Bitcoin price action in the short term could be more important. He said liquidity trends, macroeconomic conditions and overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market are more important indicators to watch than any calendar date.
Zach Pandl, managing director of research at Grayscale, told Decrypt that it’s important to consider outliers when looking at average returns.
For example, Bitcoin’s average November return of 46% was largely influenced by gains in 2013, when the asset’s price rose 450%. Conversely, he said a few tough years for the S&P 500 in the 1930s led to a “September effect” in the stock market.
“Bitcoin’s price rose slightly last September, and October has historically had the highest average return,” Pandl said. “As a result, we expect only the most impatient traders to prepare for the ‘September effect’, while most investors will focus on Bitcoin’s improving fundamentals, such as the upcoming Fed rate cuts and growing institutional adoption.”
According to Investopedia, most economists consider the September effect to be an unexplained anomaly with little relevance to the market, in part because it challenges the efficient market hypothesis, which states that the secondary market price of an asset will always reflect all available information.
Still, Bitcoin’s September weakness is often followed by an uptick. Since 2013, Bitcoin has fallen an average of 5% in September, followed by a 22% gain in October and a 46% gain in November. During the 2021 cryptocurrency market bull run, this trend was dubbed “Uptober.”
