Author: flow, SwissBorg researcher; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou
This cycle is unusual in terms of Bitcoin and altcoin dominance. In the past, the normal sequence of the crypto market has almost always been something like this:
1) Bitcoin’s dominance rises during bear markets
2) And continue to rise in the early stages of the bull market
3) As the bull market matures, investors begin to allocate funds to high-risk assets (“altcoin season”).
4) As a result, Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline.
However, this time around, we have not seen this full process so far. Since the last bear market, Bitcoin continues to dominate the market and currently accounts for 57% of the total crypto market capitalization.
There are other possibilities:
-We are going through an atypical market cycle.
-The real bull market has not really started yet.
I’ve expressed my views on this before, and I don’t think we’re going to see a massive altcoin boom like we’ve seen in the past where all altcoins were going crazy and Bitcoin’s dominance dropped significantly.
The current distribution of altcoins (see chart below) and market maturity make a large-scale altcoin season more difficult.
Instead, I think the next phase of this bull run is likely to be driven by the same two or three dominant coins, with occasional idiosyncratic rallies - either fueled by short-term attention or by some killer product or infrastructure that really attracts users.
From this perspective, I think you should be more cautious in choosing altcoins in this cycle than in the past. Don't be naive to think that just holding zombie coins that have no product-market fit and no organic driving force will miraculously make your portfolio multiply 10 times.
The game is getting harder and harder.
