ChainCatcher reported that according to Walter Bloomberg, Citi analysts said in a report to clients on Tuesday that they expect the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) to add 125,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to be 4.3%.
Citigroup said: "The shift from inflation to employment is complete," suggesting that the Fed's policy focus will shift from inflation indicators to employment data. Citigroup's forecast suggests that an increase in employment of 125,000, combined with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, will be enough to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
The report noted that if the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%, the Fed might choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, although this would not change Citigroup's expectations for continued easing in the labor market and a slowing economy. Volatility in the labor market has become as evident as inflation data in recent years.