Original title: Will Bitcoin Defy September’s Negative Trend?
Original author: Bitcoin News
Original source: https://x.com/
Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy
As the world's largest digital currency by market value, Bitcoin is facing severe tests in September this year.
Historically, this month has not been kind to Bitcoin. Dubbed the “September effect,” Bitcoin has often seen negative returns during this period, sparking concerns about what might happen this time around.
As analysts and investors keep a close eye on the market, there are several key factors that could influence Bitcoin’s price action in the coming weeks.
Data shows that Bitcoin has only achieved positive returns in September three times in the past decade. Bitcoin's average monthly return in September was -4.78%, one of the worst performing months for the asset.
Analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted this trend on social media, noting that Bitcoin typically underperforms in September, which is consistent with past performances. He said:
“If you thought August was tough for Bitcoin, remember that September also typically brings negative returns.”
Bitcoin monthly returns — Ali Martinez on XHowever, some believe that this year could break that trend.
According to on-chain spot, August’s decline (Bitcoin fell 8.73%) has the potential to pave the way for a September rally.
Historically, 43% of August declines have been followed by gains in September, suggesting that the worst may be over. Many believe that since recent macroeconomic news appears to have little impact on Bitcoin prices, the digital asset may remain in the $58,000 to $65,000 range for the near future.
Investments in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also fell. According to data from Farside Investors, these investment vehicles have experienced steady outflows over the past four days.
As Bitcoin heads into September, a month historically associated with market volatility, analysts are divided on what to expect from Bitcoin.
While some, such as analyst Stockmoney Lizards, believe September could be a critical moment, others are more cautious. Analysts also hold negative views.
According to Kanchain, a large Bitcoin holder or institution recently transferred about 2,364 Bitcoins (worth about $140 million) to Binance.
When major holders start selling assets, it tends to exacerbate negative market sentiment. Another analyst, Axel Adler Jr., said that Bitcoin's current bull run has lasted for 628 days and it may take some time to reach its peak.
Historically, Bitcoin bull runs last about 796 days, and since the market has yet to reach its typical peak, ongoing corrections could present buying opportunities.
Days between bitcoin cycles — Axel Adler Jr. on XIf Bitcoin wants to resist the “September effect,” it must overcome several resistance levels.
Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $60,000 mark, which is a key psychological level for many investors.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $58,000, having recently fallen below that level. Analysts believe that a break above $66,000 is needed to signal a potential bullish trend.
Ali Martinez noted that if Bitcoin continues to trade below this key level, it could signal a continuation of the bear market phase.
Ali Martinez on XOther analysts are also eyeing potential bullish price levels.
According to recent technical analysis, if Bitcoin breaks out of the descending channel, it could rise to $68,500. Further upside momentum could even lead to a retest of $72,000, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market.
On the downside, there are key support levels to watch. If selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could drop to around $53,000 or even further to $47,000. These levels could offer buying opportunities for investors looking to buy Bitcoin at a discount.
Several factors could help Bitcoin overcome its historic September slump. Not the least of which is the interest rate cut enacted by the Federal Reserve.
Lower interest rates typically increase economic liquidity, thus enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, it could boost the value of Bitcoin, said Innokenty Isers, CEO of Paybis.
This could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value, just as institutional investors are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin. If the Fed’s policies continue to weaken the dollar, more investors may turn to riskier assets such as Bitcoin due to their higher growth potential.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, most investors expect the Fed to stop its rate hike policy for the first time since March 2020. Such a move could trigger a surge in riskier investments such as Bitcoin.
Another positive market factor could be the upcoming release of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao from prison on September 29. It is believed that his release could spark a bullish trend.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio remains in the “opportunity zone,” suggesting that current market conditions could be favorable for buying pressure.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio chart — CryptoQuant Another potential catalyst is the continued focus on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
If this trend of alternating positive and negative months continues, the ETF could become a new buying force in September.
Despite the cautious attitude of many, there are still some in the market who are optimistic about a significant price increase.
Data from Bitcoin options trading shows a clear concentration of bullish bets on Bitcoin, reaching $90,000 by the end of September. The total open interest in Bitcoin options shows that optimism is growing, with a large number of call options with a strike price of $90,000. This suggests that some traders expect Bitcoin prices to rise sharply.
Looking ahead, December options data also reflects strong bullish sentiment, with many traders betting that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of the year. The market’s growing confidence in Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance can be seen in the concentration of open interest at these higher strike prices.
Despite the challenges, there are reasons to be optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance in September.
While the “September Effect” suggests Bitcoin could face another tough month, several factors — including potential rate cuts, strong support levels, and bullish sentiment in the options market — could help Bitcoin reverse its historical trend.
