Prediction of BTC's future trend
I posted a post two days ago and didn't expect to get more than 10,000 views and dozens of fans. I'm in a good mood today, so I'll sort out some of my thoughts for your entertainment.
Review of BTC's current bull market and prediction of future trends:
1. If BTC starts to rise from the day line crossing the middle track of the Bollinger Bands on October 15, 2023, and the situation during the high point on March 14 is reviewed:
1) From October 15 to March 14, it lasted 151 days, 5 months.
2) From the high point on March 14 to the low point on August 5, it lasted 144 days, and the adjustment was also about 5 months.
3) Calculation method from the high point on March 14 to the low point on August 5: the high point on March 14 - (the high point on March 14 - the opening point on October 15) * 50% = 73811.4 - (73811.4 - 26863.4) * 50% = 50358.9, which is not much different from the lowest point of 48888 on August 5.
Summary: This round of bull market has a cycle of about 5 months, and the 50% rule I found is more practical.
Prediction of subsequent market conditions:
1. If the daily line on August 21 crosses the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, the market will probably continue until mid-January in 5 months.
2. Rise range: From October last year to March this year, this wave rose 2.75 times. According to the lowest point of 49,000 on August 5, this wave will probably reach about 134,000.
3. Adjustment range: 13.4-(13.4-4.9)*50%=91,000.
4. Adjustment time: 5 months (adjusted from around mid-January to June next year)
5. Next year's big bull: from around June to December, about 6 months, range: predicted 250,000+ (the high point of this round of bull market = the closing price on the day of halving*4)
6. There are sideways and downward adjustments in the 5-month cycle, and the cycle is about 45-60 days. Therefore, if the middle track is established on August 21, it should be paid attention to around mid-October.
