The US dollar index fell below 102 to 101.5 for the first time since January this year, and the price of gold continued to hit a new high of $2,531.58 per ounce. According to a Reuters survey, 55 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year (in September, November and December), and the surveyed economists expect the average economic growth rate of the United States in 2024 and 2025 to be 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. When there is negative growth for two consecutive quarters, it is defined as a "technical" recession.

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The Block reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected two Solana spot ETF 19b-4 applications submitted by Cboe BZX, which have been withdrawn from the Cboe website. The 19b-4 application is submitted by Cboe, and if it is published in the Federal Register, it will initiate the SEC's approval process. Another important form is the S-1 registration statement, which is submitted by the issuer without any deadline. Because the SEC rejected the 19b-4 forms, these forms have never been published in the Federal Register, and therefore have not initiated the potential approval or rejection process. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has held talks with potential Solana ETF issuers and expressed concerns about Solana's potential status as a security. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said that although Cboe Global Markets has removed the 19b-4 filing for the VanEck Solana ETF from its website, VanEck's S-1 (Solana ETF) filing is still valid. Sigel said: Solana is a commodity rather than a security, which is determined by evolving legal views. Bitwise announced that it has acquired ETC Group, a London-based digital asset management company and the largest issuer of physical BTC ETP (BTCE) in Europe. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said that the BTC 20% discount promotion is about to end. On August 20, Metaplanet Inc., a Japanese listed company, increased its holdings by approximately 57.273 BTC at an average price of $59,613. As of August 20, Metaplanet held approximately 360.368 BTC. On August 20, the daily trading volume of the US spot BTF ETF was US$779.87 million, the lowest level since February 6, and the third lowest level of overall daily trading volume. Augustine Fan, director of SOFAorg, said: Low trading volume is expected, because market sentiment has been depressed since the massive sell-off a few weeks ago. The summer vacation and recent data have reduced people’s concerns about an impending recession. Investors have to wait for more signals from the Federal Reserve meeting later this week. Matrixport said that BTC is at a critical point to break through the current narrowing triangle pattern. If it breaks upward, it may trigger positive momentum; otherwise, the price rebound expectation may be extended.

Fed Powell is about to give a speech in Jackson Hole, and the stock market is expected to rebound in advance. Additionally, the release of FOMC minutes could bring a dovish signal. Bitfinex reported that the BTC ETF has shown resilience, continued capital inflows, and more stable price performance. BTC is still expected to develop according to the previous halving year trajectory, and the fourth quarter is expected to be very bullish. Based on historical data, either the third quarter low has already occurred, or there is one last round of decline to find a bottom for BTC. Key factors such as the macroeconomic environment and potential Fed interest rate cuts will significantly affect future ETF capital flows and market dynamics, affecting the market performance of ETH and BTC. On August 20, the US spot BTCETF had a net inflow of US$70.6 million, achieving net inflow for three consecutive trading days. Spot ETHETF had a net outflow of US$13.5 million, of which grayscale ETHE had a net outflow of US$20.3 million (Trader T data). Tether issued an additional $1 billion in stablecoins on August 20. According to Lookonchain data, Tether has issued a total of US$33 billion in stablecoins over the past year. Cryptocom reported that the number of global cryptocurrency market holders increased by 6.4% in the first half of this year, reaching 617 million, BTC holdings increased by 5.9%, reaching 314 million; ETH increased by 9.7%, bringing the total number of ETH holders to 136 million. The S-1 registration statement for VanEck's Solana ETF is still displayed on the SEC's filing system EDGAR. CboeBZX has removed the Solana ETF-related Form 19b-4 from its website. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has held talks with potential Solana ETF issuers and expressed concerns about Solana’s potential status as a security. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said that as the market awaits further announcements from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole Symposium, as well as the release of macroeconomic indicators, BTC volatility may rise in the next few days or week, and the broader Financial markets are cautiously awaiting Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The U.S. dollar index fell to 101.5 for the first time since January this year. The pin in the pie is US$61,000, and the price of gold continues to hit a new high of US$2,531.58 per ounce.

Analysts believe that gold prices should remain near record levels in the future due to expectations of loose monetary policy, with the focus on the scope and timing of possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the Jackson Hole meeting may further clarify the path the Federal Reserve may take. According to a Reuters survey, 55 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year (in September, November and December). Economists surveyed expect the average economic growth rate of the United States in 2024 and 2025 to be 2.5% and 1.8% respectively, and the possibility of falling into a recession is low. JPMorgan Chase said that the economy is still expanding, corporate earnings are growing positively, and the Federal Reserve is on track to loosen monetary policy. There is still substantial upside, and the S&P 500 is expected to hit a record high and then perform positively in the fourth quarter. Institutions are also trapped. The number of institutional holders of BTC spot ETFs continued to grow in the second quarter. BlackRock IBIT has 582 institutional holders, a month-on-month increase of 34%; Fidelity FBTC has 303 institutional holders, a month-on-month increase of 25%; Bitwise BITB has 139 institutional holders, a month-on-month increase of 35%. It is estimated that the above institutions have also been trapped, and like the cryptocurrency market, they are also waiting for the rebound of Bitcoin to untie the trap and wait for a recovery. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国7月PPI低于预期