Retail data is bearish! ! ! The probability of a rate cut in September has greatly increased! ! !

The US retail data for July, which was just released, was 1% higher than expected and the previous month, and the core retail monthly rate was also higher than expected. At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims that week was lower than the previous value and expectations. It is also very clever data. The strong retail data means that the US economy is still very strong, and the slightly lower initial unemployment claims further dispel the concerns about recession.

At least until next month's data, the market should no longer be entangled in whether there will be a recession. It is also the baseline judgment of the US economy in 24 years that some indicators may weaken, but it is far from a recession.

Coupled with the inflation data of the previous two days, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September has greatly increased. The fundamentals of the economy are strong, and inflation is going down, so the pace of interest rate cuts will also ease.