Bitcoin (BTC) has quickly rebounded to $62,000 in recent days, attracting widespread attention in the market. The recent decline is considered to be a "bear trap", and this trend shows that the floor price of Bitcoin has been supported. Since the 3rd, reports have pointed out that the bullish outlook is gradually strengthening and futures traders are also readjusting their positions.
On the 8th, the price of Bitcoin rose by 12.46% from the previous day to $62,510, but then fell back to $61,068. This rapid rebound followed the fall of Bitcoin to $49,751 on the 5th, the first time Bitcoin has fallen below $50,000 since February. As of 1 p.m. on the 9th, Bitcoin was at $60,782, up 7% from the previous day.
Several cryptocurrency traders have pointed out that a bullish pattern has appeared on the weekly chart, indicating that Bitcoin may have bottomed out. Trader Matthew Hyland explained in an analysis video on the 8th: "Bitcoin is showing a huge hammer pattern formed by the green weekly line, which may mean that Bitcoin has bottomed out in this structure."
Other traders also believe that the recent price drop may be some kind of "bear trap." A "bear trap" is a strategy used by experienced traders to temporarily drive down the price of an asset to induce retail investors to sell. "This week's market volatility has been extremely violent. This may be the most epic bear trap I have ever seen," said anonymous cryptocurrency trader "Byzantine General."
Sentiment among futures traders has also changed significantly in favor of long positions. According to data from CoinGlass, the proportion of long positions currently reaches 52.48%, which is higher than the 47.52% of short positions. Morgan Stanley, the largest asset management company in the United States, allows its 15,000 financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to clients, a move that has also increased expectations for Bitcoin's rise. As the news spread, the market's bullish sentiment increased further.
Some analysts also believe that the bottom of Bitcoin has not yet been fully formed. Marcus Thielen of 10x Research said: "We expect Bitcoin prices to fall to the low $40,000 range to seize the opportunity of the next bull market." Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane, predicted that volatility will increase, "Bitcoin has the potential to fall to $40,000 or rise to $80,000 in the next 60 days."
The net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $200 million, the highest level since July 29, indicating that many investors saw the market crash before the 5th as a buying opportunity. In particular, IBIT, a subsidiary of BlackRock, as one of the main Bitcoin ETFs, recorded an inflow of $157.6 million on that day. IBIT also recorded a net inflow of $200 million on July 29. Although the inflow slowed down afterwards, the inflow of funds has once again shown a large scale since the 9th. At present, IBIT manages assets of about $20 billion, making it the world's largest Bitcoin ETF.
BTCW under WisdomTree had a net inflow of $118.52 million, and FBTC under Fidelity had a net inflow of $65.25 million. On the other hand, GBTC under Grayscale, which has relatively high fees, saw an outflow of $182.94 million, the largest outflow since April 4. Since the Bitcoin ETF began trading on January 11, GBTC has accumulated a total outflow of $19 billion. Grayscale's assets under management have now been reduced to $19.3 billion.
Although the price of Bitcoin plummeted to $49,050 on the 5th, it quickly rebounded and broke through $60,000 again. Julio Moreno, director of CryptoQuant, said: "This rebound has led to a significant reduction in Bitcoin perpetual futures positions, indicating that the rebound on the 9th is likely the result of short covering."
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, predicts that the price of Bitcoin could surge even if Trump or Harris is elected president. In an interview with DL News, Hayes said that if the two candidates continue to massively issue money through economic policies, the price of Bitcoin could surge to $1 million.
Hayes stressed that the current huge global debt can no longer be ignored, and we are at a critical period of global monetary structural change. He pointed out that although the cryptocurrency industry has high expectations for Trump, traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and Goldman Sachs have stronger support. Hayes analyzed that whether Trump or Harris comes to power, they may alleviate the economic downturn through active monetary policies, and these policies are expected to have a positive impact on digital assets such as Bitcoin. He predicted that the international financial crisis caused by the recent liquidation may lead to large-scale financial intervention by the US government, thereby driving the price of Bitcoin to soar.
