After the 85 crash, the crypto market finally emerged from the shadows. Bitcoin gradually recovered and broke through $62,000, with a 24-hour increase of 12.67%, and an increase of more than 26% from the lowest point ($49,000). Ethereum broke through $2,700, with a 24-hour increase of 15%.
As the market rebounded, altcoins saw a general rise, including: SUI 24 hours rose 34%; REZ 24 hours rose 32%; SAGA 24 hours rose 25.4%; TAO 24 hours rose 24%; BANANA 24 hours rose 21.4%; TIA 24 hours rose 21.6%; SEI 24 hours rose 21%. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies rebounded to 2.24 trillion US dollars, a 24-hour increase of 7.2%.
Why is it rising?
Putin "calls" to legalize cryptocurrency mining in Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law legalizing cryptocurrency mining in Russia on August 8, TASS reported. The signed law introduces new concepts, including digital currency mining, mining pools, mining infrastructure operators, address identifiers, and individuals who organize mining pool activities.
According to the document, only registered Russian legal entities and individual entrepreneurs are entitled to mine, and individuals who are not included in the register but do not exceed the energy consumption limit set by the Russian government are also entitled to engage in cryptocurrency mining. Foreign digital financial assets can be traded on the Russian blockchain platform, and the Russian Central Bank will have the right to ban certain issuances if they are found to pose a threat to Russia's financial stability.
The law means the legalization of cryptocurrency mining in Russia. Earlier, Putin discussed the introduction and use of cryptocurrencies with the government at a meeting on economic issues. He noted that this is a promising economic sector and that Russia must "seize the moment" and quickly establish a legal framework and regulation, develop infrastructure, and create conditions for circulation.
Japan's rate hike less likely
QCP Capital's latest report pointed out that the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan downplayed the possibility of another interest rate hike in the near future, providing an opportunity for the crypto market to recover.
JPMorgan Asset Management said the Bank of Japan will avoid raising rates again in the short term, and further tightening may depend on the direction of the U.S. economy. "The Bank of Japan actually has a path to act again, but that is a path where the Fed cuts rates and tries to stabilize the U.S. economy," said Seamus Mac Gorain, the firm's global head of rates. "Of course, if the U.S. goes into recession, that path is blocked."
Mac Gorain believes further tightening of monetary policy may not occur until 2025. In an interview, he said the Bank of Japan could make a series of rate hikes, but it depends on having a fairly benign global backdrop. "Obviously, the Bank of Japan will not act until the market stabilizes," Mac Gorain said. "It certainly also depends on whether the U.S. and global economies can avoid a recession."
Ripple ruling boosts sentiment
Analisa Torres, a U.S. district judge in the Southern District of New York, ruled that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws by selling XRP to retail investors through its trading platform. However, Ripple's 1,278 institutional sales transactions violated securities laws and fined it $125.035 million.
Since the amount is far less than the $1 billion in illegal gains and pre-judgment interest and $900 million in civil penalties requested by the SEC, this result is seen by Ripple as a victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The ruling boosted market sentiment and cryptocurrencies rose slightly again.
But according to Coindesk, although the Ripple case is allegedly over, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to appeal the ruling, which means the legal matter may be prolonged.
Is the market recovering?
This crypto market pullback once again shows that the market lacks confidence in Ethereum. Before and after the Jump sell-off market fell, many market makers chose to sell Ethereum.
According to ARKHAM data, the GSR Markets on-chain public address reduced its Ethereum holdings by more than 706 in the week before the crash, and transferred more than 1,000 Ethereum to exchanges such as Binance between August 1 and August 2. After the "85" crash, it still reduced its holdings by more than 100 ETH, but the reduction of other altcoins was not obvious.
Amber Group increased its holdings of ETH in large quantities, but panic-sold when the crash occurred, transferring all the ETH it had increased its holdings a few days ago, more than half of which went directly to the exchange. Flow Traders transferred a large amount of ETH to the chain the day before, but immediately transferred a large amount to the exchange the next day, selling ETH in time and buying the bottom of Bitcoin at the same time.
Related reading: "What operations did the six major market makers perform before and after the "85" crash?"
But some analysts believe that the market is getting better. The day after the "85" plunge, TheBlock reported that after Monday's turmoil, cryptocurrencies had cleared more than $1 billion in leveraged funds, and the value of major tokens fell by as much as 20%. In the past 24 hours, the global cryptocurrency market value has increased by more than 5% to $2.04 trillion. The market has shown initial signs of recovery.
Coinbase researcher David Duong said: "We believe that market anxiety will persist in the short term, but shorts may be squeezed, which may lead to a market rebound in the next few days." Duong emphasized that "the current market correction does not mean the beginning of a new long-term trend, but is consistent with its defensive strategy for the third quarter of 2024, and more positive market performance is expected in the fourth quarter."
Chris Burniske, former head of Ark Invest crypto and current partner at Placeholder VC, said on social media, “With sentiment reset and leverage cleansing, the lows of most high-quality crypto assets are significantly higher than the levels in 2023. At the same time, central banks around the world are about to be forced to ease policy. Although there may be some volatility in the third quarter, this is a beautiful early bull market layout anyway.”
