Will the RMB become waste paper?
I often see overseas Chinese media discussing this. Although I think it is alarmist, I also think that it will definitely depreciate if it is over-issued.
But I recently learned some knowledge about exchange rates and found that the exchange rate designed by the People's Bank of China is amazing. It is more perfect than that designed by the Federal Reserve, Japan, and the European Central Bank.
The RMB and the US dollar (foreign currency) are two completely isolated capital pools. One is the domestic capital pool (onshore), and the other is the offshore capital pool in Hong Kong.
Through the compulsory foreign exchange settlement system, the US dollars earned by the Chinese people are held in the hands of the government. The domestic exchange rate can be determined by the amount of foreign currency released. The US dollar tap is in the hands of the government.
The offshore capital pool is the so-called place where the RMB is freely convertible. In fact, the offshore RMB exchange rate is controlled by the amount of RMB released. The RMB tap is in the hands of the government.
So as long as China's exports do not collapse and the government still has US dollars in its hands, it can completely control the exchange rate.
On the other hand, it also shows that the rise and fall of the RMB itself are the needs of the government, rather than a complete reflection of the economy.
If exports collapse and there is no dollar income (foreign currency income is insufficient to cover expenditure), the domestic individual free exchange of dollar quotas may be cancelled.
On the contrary, if there is a lot of foreign currency income, the government will have more energy to reap domestic and foreign leeks through exchange rate adjustments.
So the question is, do you think the so-called decentralized Bitcoin will also become a tool for financial warfare among countries? Who controls the most Bitcoin? Between returning to zero and going to the moon, which one do you believe more? #BTC☀