According to TechFlow, economists at Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%. However, they also pointed out that despite the sharp rise in unemployment, there are "several reasons not to worry about a recession."

Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said: "We still believe that the risk of recession is limited. The overall economy still looks good, there are no major financial imbalances, and the Fed has a lot of room to cut interest rates and can do so quickly if necessary." It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Fed is not as aggressive as that of JPMorgan and Citi.

Hatzius’ team expects the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November and December;

In contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect a 50 basis point rate cut in September.

"Our forecast assumes that job growth will resume in August and that the FOMC will deem a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risk," the Goldman Sachs report said. "If we are wrong and the August jobs report is as weak as July, a 50 basis point rate cut could be in the cards in September."

The economists added that they were skeptical that the U.S. labor market was “at risk” of a rapid deterioration because job openings suggested demand remained solid and there was no clear shock to trigger a downturn.