Let me first talk about why the market fell so badly today. The first reason is that the decline in the unemployment rate triggered the Sahm Rule, and the Sahm Rule represents the possibility of an economic recession. If I was still saying yesterday that it was a bit early to trade in a recession, then it did happen today. So yesterday U.S. stocks rose, U.S. bonds fell, and the cryptocurrency market fell because funds returned to U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, but today U.S. bonds fell, U.S. stocks fell, the cryptocurrency market fell, and even gold fell.

There is no way to say that it is a recession, but is it a recession now? The only indicator we have seen so far is that the unemployment rate is rising, but even an unemployment rate of 4.3% is still a low level in the United States. The unemployment rate rises to more than 5.3% to enter the dangerous range. Of course, some friends say that it is a recession now, but the United States does not admit it. Then we have to look at the general economic recession standards around the world, mainly the decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters, but in the second quarter just passed, the US GDP doubled.

You said you expected an economic recession, but why didn't you say anything when GDP doubled? Good non-farm data is bad data, and bad data is still bad data. We have been saying this for more than a year. Now, those friends who are still hoping for an increase in unemployment to stimulate the Federal Reserve should understand what I mean.

If you don't understand, please take a look at my pinned tweets. Why is it said that talking about interest rate cuts without considering the economy is just being a hooligan? Why there are defensive interest rate cuts and last-ditch interest rate cuts? Why is it said that the previous and current drops are not the last ones? The pinned tweets explain it very clearly. If I remember correctly, I wrote the first "last drop" in November 2023. If you are interested, you can also take a look. It is in the quote of the pinned tweet.

Will a trading recession definitely lead to a continuous sharp drop? This is not necessarily the case. After all, we are still in the gambling period. Many investors are still gambling that the Fed's interest rate cuts can be ahead of the curve and become defensive interest rate cuts. After all, economic recessions are also caused by high interest rates. If high interest rates are resolved early, nothing may happen. So this is called a "trading recession" rather than a real recession.

So why did the market fall so badly today? The U.S. stock market saw an average drop of 2.5%. This is because today is Friday. We have been saying before that the amount of funds on Fridays is the lowest compared to the working days of the week, so it is very likely that it is bad news, and coupled with the low amount of funds, it is out of control. In fact, when it comes to U.S. stocks, it is still not so bad. After all, there is still a two-day cooling-off period after the end of Friday.

But#BTCand#ETHmay be a little more troublesome. After all, they are available 24/7, so the price fluctuations may be greater over the weekend, and even large price shocks cannot be ruled out, so you guys should pay attention to this.

Judging from the current URPD data, there is still no change from the earlier investors, no panic, and no increase in selling. Although I haven't seen the ETF data, it is estimated to be similar. The main selling is still the loss-making chips of the bottom-fishing in the past week. The support of $64,000 to $69,000 is still very good and has not been broken for the time being.

What we need to pay attention to are the two days over the weekend. There will be no important macro data next week, so we will just have to wait and see how emotions play out.

PS: I remind you again that you can hold on to the Euro and the Japanese Yen for a while. You said you had anticipated the economic recession and the September rate cut six months ago? Then at what price did you intervene in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, or even the British Pound? Oh, I didn't see that. Why didn't you intervene? Oh, because you didn't see the small profit. OK, I'm not very knowledgeable. I understand.

The data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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