As long as the Fed clearly cuts interest rates, the probability of a bull market will be very high, which means that we may have a bull market in 2025! However, some people believe that the real bull market will come before the first interest rate cut, because the interest rate cut at that time is the realization of good news, which may trigger a market crash. The trend of US stocks is an example. But not everyone agrees that this round is a big bull market, and many people do not expect it to be a bull market next year. Some people I know believe that 2025 may be the end of the bull market, and the bull market may have ended. Of course, 2025 may not be a big bull market. The next few years may be a continuation of this wave of bull market, or even a long-term bull market. It all depends on the expectation of interest rate cuts. Once this expectation is reached, the market may fall sharply. However, this is not the case. Let's review the last round of interest rate cuts: In July 2019, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, and the federal interest rate dropped from 2.25 to 2, then to 1.75 in September, to 1.5 in October, and directly to 1 in March of the following year, and finally further to 0~0.5.
The entire interest rate cut process lasted for 8 months, from July 2019 to March 2020. According to this logic, the bull market should have ended in July 2019 because the expectation of interest rate cuts had already appeared. But in fact, the big bull market in the currency circle did not really begin until April after the end of the interest rate cut.
Therefore, even if the interest rate cuts begin in 2025, if the interest rate cuts begin in September this year and last for about a year, the big bull market may be even crazier.
This is a reasonable speculation. The interest rate cut is indeed an important good news, but this good news needs time to prove.
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