Cryptocurrency daily summary:
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%
Last Friday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by 630 BTC
The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision at 2:00 am Hong Kong time on August 1 (Thursday). It is widely expected that Fed officials will keep the key interest rate unchanged this week. UBS believes that the Fed's policy shift is coming soon, and the basic forecast is that the first interest rate cut will be 25 basis points in September.
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 11.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.
On July 26, nine US Ethereum ETFs reduced their holdings of 37,044 ETH, and Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings of 630 BTC.
Vaneck predicts that Bitcoin price will reach $2.9 million by 2050. The report suggests that Bitcoin could settle 10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade, with central banks holding 2.5% of assets in BTC. Scalability challenges are a concern, but layer 2 solutions could enhance adoption.
Approximately $893 million worth of tokens will be unlocked in August, with the largest token releases being $268 million for Avalanche and over $180 million for Wormhole.
According to tonscan data, the TON network currently has 677 million TON staked, accounting for 26.9% of the circulating supply (2.5165 billion). In addition, the current stake APY is 3.7%, and the network has a total of 400 verification nodes.
At the Bitcoin2024 conference, Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, said that Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and authoritarian governments.
The owner of Kabosu, the Shiba Inu prototype of the Doge meme, said that he does not recognize any crypto project except Own The Doge.
BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC are among the top 10 ETFs in terms of fund inflows this year, ranking first in terms of returns.
According to Dune data, the number of daily active users of BLOCKLORDS on the Base chain once exceeded 250,000, making it one of the main games on the chain.
On July 26, the official website of NetX, built by the AI cloud computing infrastructure Trias ecological project, was officially launched. At the end of July, the NetX mainnet will be launched.
Ethereum re-staking protocol EigenLayer announced on the X platform that it will soon launch AVS (Active Verification Service) rewards and EIGEN programmatic incentives.
Market analysis: BTC surges to around $69,000, and bullish sentiment recovers quickly
Market Trends:
Bitcoin (BTC) had a modest rise over the weekend, with the daily, 4H, and 1H levels all showing a bullish trend of moving average bulls. If this momentum can continue this week, it is expected to hit the previous high of around $70,000 before being blocked and consolidating.
From a purely technical perspective, Bitcoin has less than 8% of the upper target. Once it stabilizes at $73,000, the upper space will open up. However, given that CME futures have gapped upward this week, and there have been three gaps on the daily level, based on past historical experience, Bitcoin still has a certain downward adjustment expectation to explore support.
From the perspective of capital flows, U.S. spot ETFs have recently shown a trend of sustained net inflows in July, indicating that market sentiment has warmed up and the market has gradually recovered from the panic caused by Mt. Gox's repayment of Bitcoin debt and the German government's sell-off.
It is worth mentioning that from the recent economic data, inflation is indeed cooling down. Powell, who tends to take action earlier in the past, has been weighing the risks of cutting interest rates too early and waiting too long. The current situation shows that the Fed is beginning to tend to cut interest rates faster. It is believed that the improvement of macro liquidity will help stimulate the further release of bullish sentiment on Bitcoin prices.
To sum up, from the perspective of the macro trend, Bitcoin will still receive sufficient bullish impetus, but it may maintain a certain adjustment trend in the short term, and the long-term outlook is still optimistic.
Market Hotspots:
Payment sector: The Payment sector led the market slightly, with a 24-hour increase of 1.4%. XRP, BCH, LTC and other leading sectors increased by 1.07%, 6.18%, and 0.42% respectively. The performance of these old tokens is relatively low-key, and the rotation of hot spots to this sector may not be sustainable.
Layer1 sector: The current market value of Layer1 sector accounts for 10.03%, up 0.68% in 24 hours. BNB, SOL, ADA, TRX and other tokens performed relatively strongly.
MEME sector: The MEME sector has recently taken the lead in following the strong rebound of the market. Although it has been rising and falling, the MEME sector has been improving day by day, and there will always be some new MEMEs that rise against the trend. Currently, the sectors with more prominent increases include BOME, PONKE, MUMU, COQ, etc., with 24H increases of 5.9%, 16.7%, 12.9%, and 17.3% respectively.
In summary, the current macro liquidity expectations of the crypto market have gradually improved. After experiencing a strong rise for 7 consecutive months, Bitcoin is currently in a wide range of fluctuations. Various sectors have maintained a hype rotation trend. There is no evidence that there is a situation like last year's AI, DePIN, and inscriptions that continue to be popular. At present, capital speculation is still cautious, and the market may be looking for iconic products that can detonate the market. MEME games on the TON chain are worth paying attention to.
In summary, the current macro liquidity expectations of the crypto market have gradually improved. After experiencing a strong rise for 7 consecutive months, Bitcoin is currently in a wide range of fluctuations. Various sectors have maintained a hype rotation trend. There is no evidence that there is a situation like last year's AI, DePIN, and inscriptions that continue to be popular. At present, capital speculation is still cautious, and the market may be looking for iconic products that can detonate the market. MEME games on the TON chain are worth paying attention to.
Macro: Trump's speech at Bitcoin conference, macro liquidity easing is imminent
Last week, the latest financial reports released by Google and Tesla were not satisfactory, triggering market speculation about the "burst of the artificial intelligence bubble", and the volatility of US stocks intensified. Specifically, in terms of price returns, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.75% last week, the Nasdaq fell by 2.08%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.83%. The linkage between the crypto market and the US stock market further weakened, and it fell first and then rose last week, showing a strong performance.
The recent 2024 Bitcoin Conference has attracted the attention of the market. Trump delivered a speech at the conference, expressing his positive view on Bitcoin, believing it to be a "miracle of cooperation and human achievement", and promised that if elected president, he would take a series of measures to support the development of the cryptocurrency field, including establishing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, developing energy to reduce mining costs, and appointing a Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Presidential Advisory Committee. He also predicted that the market value of Bitcoin will surpass gold in the future, and promised to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Amid speculation about possible changes in Trump’s policy on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s value surged to over $69,000 on Saturday.
But it is worth mentioning that after Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, many related Trump concept coins fell across the board.
On the other hand, in the face of weak inflation data and overheated employment data, the Fed has gradually made clear its expectations for rate cuts after weighing various factors. The Fed is very cautious in its attitude towards employment data, hoping for a soft landing in the job market while maintaining high interest rates to suppress inflation. The June non-farm payrolls report met the Fed's expectations, and market analysts generally believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in September. However, the Fed faces a dilemma when deciding to cut interest rates: if the job market cools too quickly, the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates in advance to save the non-farm and unemployment rates; if the job market continues to be hot, the Fed may need to continue to extend the high interest rate policy.
Still, favorable inflation, a cooling job market and a shifting balance of risk are leaving the Fed ready to cut rates.
The Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision this Thursday, and Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. It is expected that the interest rate policy will become clearer, and we will continue to pay close attention to this.
