Shocking reversal!!! Today the German government exposed itself! They said that they relied on OTC to ship goods, not the market crash!!! See the picture below for details!
German Government: More than 90% of Bitcoin is sold through OTC transactions
The German government said the sales process lasted about 3.5 weeks, and they sold a total of nearly 50,000 bitcoins, raising about 2.64 billion euros.
According to the German government:
Our intent to sell assets prior to the conclusion of this litigation is to sell off assets, and the current daily value of Bitcoin and other unforeseen circumstances affecting price are not relevant to the decision on whether and when to conduct an emergency sale.
However, official documents emphasize that during the sale, less than 1% of the transaction volume was initially completed through regular transactions, and more than 90% of the bitcoins were completed in a market-friendly over-the-counter (OTC) manner, saying that this method would not have a direct impact on the price of bitcoin.
Looking back, the decline of Bitcoin from the end of last month to the middle of this month seems to have another possibility, which is due to the negative market sentiment caused by the German government's sale and the initiation of repayment by the Mt. Gox exchange, which led to panic selling by retail investors.
What he meant was that this Bitcoin washout had nothing to do with me! I won’t take the blame!
In fact, after reading this, I believe many friends will have questions!
In the past few weeks, the German government's wallet has been depositing coins into and withdrawing coins from exchanges. Could it be that they are putting on a show for everyone to watch?
The truth may be much, much more outrageous than you think
It is possible that the civil servants have never made any transactions, and do not know that selling coins requires considering the "liquidity" of the exchange. It is even more likely that they do not know what market depth is!
At the beginning, you may directly transfer a large amount to the market and want to sell it all at once, but you find that there are no such large orders. Moreover, once the coins are transferred to the exchange, retail investors start to panic and dump the coins. The movement of the wallet is monitored in real time, and according to German law: the price of BTC sold cannot exceed 10% error! !
Later, I found some institutions to conduct OTC transactions!
The OTC institutions made a lot of money. At that time, Sun Ge also posted a message, wanting to buy the Bitcoin of the German government on OTC. I guess he also heard the news! (It is said that Sun Ge did not buy it later) After all, BTC with a 95% discount is still very popular!
The German government will also be helpless in this wave of actions. Too many big coins in its wallet have been targeted, and any transfer of coins will cause panic. Otherwise, according to the size of the market, coupled with the inflow of funds from the Bitcoin ETF, absorbing this selling pressure is actually just a drop in the bucket.
This is also equivalent to a big blunder. During this decline, retail investors' copycat positions were cut in half, and the contract positions were gone. Now the spot has returned to its original position, institutions have more discounted stocks, and the German government has obtained USDT. It seems that the only ones who are hurt are us retail investors!
However, the biggest potential negative news for the market in the near term is the repayment that Mt. Gox is currently executing. After all, the amount is nearly three times that of the German government, and it will indeed be delivered to creditors in the form of currency.
Since nearly 75% of creditors choose Early Payout (subject to a 10% reduction in value), only about 95,000 bitcoins will be used to pay compensation early (the remaining BTC will take longer to pay):
About 20,000 of these tokens belong to the claims fund
10,000 tokens belong to Bitcoinica BK
There are about 65,000 coins left that are owed to individual creditors.
Individual creditors will hold onto Bitcoin longer than the market expects:
Creditors are mainly long-term Bitcoin holders. They are early adopters who are technologically savvy.
Individual creditors have rejected attractive offers from claims funds over the years, suggesting they would rather get their bitcoin back than compensation denominated in U.S. dollars.
The capital gains tax impact of the sale would be significant. With prices rising, even if only 15% of the claims in kind were recovered, the claim holders would have made 140x the value (in USD) on the Bitcoin they recovered since the bankruptcy.
Therefore, in summary, the selling pressure of Bitcoin will not be greater than investors imagine. As for the actual market situation, it remains to be verified by time.
Ethereum’s ETF is coming soon!
The correlation between Bitcoin ETF inflows and Bitcoin prices. In the ten days or so after the launch (January 11-23), the Bitcoin price fell by 15%, which to some extent dampened the enthusiasm of capital inflows. But in the next three weeks, the Bitcoin price rose by about 30%, and a large amount of funds poured into the crypto market.
Although Ethereum ETF is a big positive, we should also be wary of the negative news brought by the positive landing. There may be some profit-taking and selling pressure on the market! ! ! When the news comes out, we must be flexible! ! !
I still say that Ubicoin is more practical. Manage your positions well and don't hold too many! #德国政府转移比特币 #BTC下跌分析
