A proof that the bull market has not yet started, the price performance recorded from the bottom of the cycle;

If you calculate the price trend of BTC from the bottom of each cycle and calculate the trend of MA50, you can get the performance of each cycle in the figure below;

Assuming that each cycle has similarities in terms of increase and rhythm, we can get the following possible conclusions:

1. If a cycle moves too fast or too high compared to the historical cycle, then it will tend to recover and fluctuate within the mean range in the subsequent time;

2. In most cases, the time point when the big bull market starts to rise rapidly is in the second half of the entire cycle, that is, the first 60% of the time in a cycle is in a volatile upward process;

3. If the current market is calculated according to the same ratio, the time when BTC truly breaks through the new high and starts the bull market will most likely occur around the first quarter of 2025, and reach the final top around October 2025;

4. The current price performance has far exceeded the average performance of the past two cycles. The current cycle ROI of MA50 is 4.1, while the average performance of the past two cycles at the same time is 3.2. In other words, the current correction is in a state of returning to the historical mean, and the current price moving average level still has a potential correction space of 22% from the mean;

5. The time to completely complete the correction and return to the historical cycle average is about October 2024, after which a new round of bull market may begin;

Summary: If calculated based on the MA50 continued correction of 22%, the potential correction range of BTC in the third quarter may still need to be about 25% from the current price, and the target price is about US$43,000;

And after October this year, it will completely stabilize and rebound, start a slow upward shock, and break through the historical signal again in the first quarter of 2025, and go out of the year-long bull market until it peaks in October 2025;

Note: The above analysis is only summarized based on historical data, and does not have the inevitability of historical recurrence, and is only for reference.