The German government has only 22,800 bitcoins left! Will the miners' capitulation continue for more than two months?
Today is Wednesday, July 10, 2024. It has been 80 days since the Bitcoin halving. The performance of this cycle after the halving can almost be said to be the worst in history. We must also understand that this cycle broke through the historical high before the halving. The panic and greed index of Bitcoin is also the most fearful moment seen in the market since January last year. When the German government is selling heavily, the spot Bitcoin ETF market is boiling, because we saw a net inflow of 5,280 bitcoins on Monday's trading day. Blackrock's inflow is very large, and it continued to see inflows yesterday, Tuesday.
Without the release of Blackrock data, 1,682 bitcoins have already flowed in. The ETF fund inflows on Monday are similar to the level in early May. I have always said that the macro in May is very positive. Bitcoin is not only the non-agricultural or CPI inflation rate at that time, but also the Ethereum ETF was unexpectedly approved at the end of May. This was driven by the US presidential campaign. The Democratic Party behind the current President Biden hopes to get the support of cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
In the late evening of July 8, basically all ETF applicants have submitted SEC revised documents. Next, it depends on the progress of the US SEC. Bloomberg expects that it will be approved later this week or next week.
In the next few months, if the non-agricultural data shows that the labor market is cooling down and the US inflation rate continues to decline, this is the most ideal situation for Bitcoin. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September will be strengthened, and the economic recession will be resisted by cutting interest rates. The US presidential election is also important. Trump is likely to be re-elected. Even large donors to the Democratic Party have said that they will no longer provide financial support unless the presidential candidate is replaced. It has been reported that if Trump is elected president, it may cause a sharp rise in Bitcoin prices in the second half of the year. Trump has also made some verbal promises and has issued NFTs himself.
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