Today's market review
The market bottomed out again after opening today. Yesterday's closing was not satisfactory. The daily line showed that it was obviously blocked below the moving average.
From the weekly perspective, the closing price last week fell below the consolidation range of nearly four months, forming an M-top pattern. This pattern is in the 5.6-5.7 area as the neckline of the weekly M-top. Once it falls below, it may bring greater risks. Therefore, the market trend this week is crucial.
If the closing this week is still not satisfactory, do you need to consider switching to a long-term short strategy?
It is not so severe. From the overall structure, the market is in the adjustment stage of the bullish pattern. At present, it is impossible to determine whether a sharp decline at the weekly level will be formed. A more detailed analysis requires observing the price behavior this week and making specific judgments after the closing.
On the 4-hour chart, the relevant three buy signals were broken. The downward stage starting from 7.2 only completed the upper and lower bands. The structural stop point of the third wave cannot be judged. After the construction of the pen center, it may break the low again, and then form an upward band or paragraph on the 4-hour chart.
On the 1-hour chart, after experiencing the downward segment of three central axes, the heavy selling did not form a divergence. In the callback stage after completing the three sells, if the low point is broken, the possibility of turning to one buy will be greatly increased.
From a macro perspective, the passage of ETFs has opened the market, but the inflow of funds has not yet appeared in the Bitcoin market. The halving of supply has not yet been truly reflected in the price of Bitcoin. The biggest resistance at present comes from the selling pressure of the US and German governments and large holders.
In general, the current medium- and long-term bulls are still attractive, but two key factors need to be considered: first, observe the price performance of this week in detail, and second, reserve enough space for replenishment below to cope with the potential expansion of the left-side risk.
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