Cryptocurrency daily summary:
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Increased Its Holdings by 526 Bitcoins Yesterday
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%.
The US unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data will be released this Friday
According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 34.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.
USDT minting on Ethereum and Tron dropped from $7 billion to $1 billion in 6 months.
Arthur Hayes wrote that a new inflation cycle has arrived and Bitcoin will be the best safe haven for wealth.
According to CryptoQuant data and analyst opinions, Bitcoin hashrate has fallen to its lowest level since the FTX crash in December 2022, currently at -7.6%, suggesting that Bitcoin prices may have bottomed out. Other indicators such as exchange reserves and miner position index also show low selling pressure, supporting the view of a market bottom.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, data from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on July 1 showed that BlackRock increased its holdings by approximately 1,366 bitcoins, worth approximately US$85.9 million; Grayscale reduced its holdings by 198 bitcoins, worth approximately US$12.4 million; and nine Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings by a total of 526 bitcoins, worth approximately US$33 million.
In June, the trading volumes of BTC and ETH futures contracts decreased by 19.9% and 23.8% respectively.
CoinShares’ latest weekly report shows that digital asset investment products saw outflows for the third consecutive week last week, totaling $30 million.
The Starknet Foundation will allocate an additional 50 million STRK to the DeFi Spring 2.0 program, bringing the total budget to 90 million STRK. DeFi protocols can apply to join DeFi Spring and increase the liquidity of the protocol to earn additional income.
FET started the first phase of the ASI token merger plan with AGIX & OCEAN at 23:00 yesterday.
The first phase of TRIAS migration of the AI ecological project Trias has been completed, and the TRIAS BSC contract upgrade is about to start, which is expected to be completed within 1 to 2 weeks.
The Japan Web3 Association, operator of Japanese Web3 media CoinPost, announced that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will speak at WebX, an international Web3 conference planned and organized by the WebX Executive Committee.
Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, said on the X platform that it purchased an additional 20.20 BTC.
Kronos Advanced Technologies, a US-listed company, announced support for the SHIB payment method.
Market analysis: BTC rebounded to $63,000 but was blocked, and the rise and fall of altcoins were both volatile
Market Trends:
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly last weekend, breaking through the downward trend line and MA60 suppression at the 4H level, but this trend failed to continue this week and was blocked and consolidated when it hit around $63,000-64,000.
From a purely technical perspective, the upper target is still expected to continue to rise to around $64,500, but given the upward gap in CME futures, Bitcoin's upward momentum is still insufficient. Based on past historical experience, Bitcoin is still expected to move downward to find support.
It is worth mentioning that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June released last night was 48.5, the expected value was 49.1, and the previous value was 48.7. The data was lower than the expected and previous value, which is a small positive for the crypto market. The current short-term downward macro risk is not large.
In terms of capital flows, U.S. spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with holdings increasing by 596 and 526 bitcoins in the past two days, respectively. This shows that market sentiment has warmed up, but we should still be wary of the downward pressure brought about by Mt.Gox's repayment of bitcoin debts and the German government's sell-off starting this month.
To sum up, whether from the macro background or the micro trend, Bitcoin lacks the corresponding conditions for a big rise or fall. In the short term, it may maintain a certain adjustment and accumulation trend, and the long-term prospects of the market are still optimistic.
Market Hotspots:
Ethereum sector: Spot Ethereum ETF is still an important driving factor in supporting Ethereum and its sector tokens. Tokens such as $ENS , $SSV , $LDO , and UNI have led the rebound recently. According to the latest analysis, the expected listing time of the spot Ethereum ETF may be postponed from July 2 to after July 8, and Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), recently said that it is expected that the spot Ethereum ETF will be listed as early as September. According to this time, the Ethereum sector will remain strong for some time.
SocialFi sector: The TON chain supported by Telegram, which has hundreds of millions of user traffic, has ushered in a big explosion, especially the game Notcoin (NOT) that earns money by clicking, which has brought a number of MEME chain games into the limelight. In July, the Catizen token will be launched. The SocialFi sector continues to maintain a high market popularity.
RWA sector: The real world asset (RWA) sector has increased by -0.1% in the past 24 hours, which is a relatively resistant sector. The leading tokens of MKR, ONDO, PENDLE, OM, POLYX, etc. have increased by -1.39%, -2.94%, -2.47%, 6.56%, and -5.29% respectively. The RWA sector, DePIN, AI, L2, etc. are all new tracks in this round of bull market. The RWA project carries the function of expanding the adoption rate of reality through encryption technology and products, and has attracted much attention from traditional market veterans.
MEME sector: The MEME sector recently took the lead in following the strong rebound of the market, and then fell sharply, with a much larger volatility than other sectors. Today's MEME has become more and more complete and complex, and is no longer an alternative for the overflow of overheated market sentiment. Even though all sectors fell today, there are still some MEMEs that rose against the trend. The 24-hour increases of dog-themed MEMEs such as WIF, BONK, PONK, and DOG were 1.53%, 12.97%, and 6.15% respectively.
In summary, the current macro liquidity environment of the crypto market has not improved. After experiencing a strong rise for 8 consecutive months, Bitcoin is currently in a wide range of fluctuations. RWA, SocialFi, Ethereum and other sectors have maintained a relatively resistant trend, but the sustainability of the heat remains to be seen. At present, capital speculation is still cautious, and the issuance of coins by some large projects such as Blast, zkSync, and LayerZero has also caused a lot of controversy. In the context of a market lacking a wealth-creating effect, investors should remain cautious.
Macroeconomics: Economic data and elections dance together, be cautious about the expectation of interest rate cuts
Boosted by some investors' short covering, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data for June was worse than market expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher yesterday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.13% and the S&P 500 up 0.27%. Popular technology stocks performed outstandingly, with Tesla up more than 6%, Apple up nearly 3%, and Microsoft and Amazon up more than 2%. The linkage between the crypto market and the U.S. stock market weakened, and it showed a slight correction yesterday.
Next, the market will generally focus on the Fed's interest rate attitude and a series of important economic data to be released soon. With many macro data coming this week, especially the US non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday, which is regarded as a key indicator for judging the health of the US economy, the data is expected to provide more clues on whether the Fed will cut interest rates.
It is worth noting that although the market generally expects the Fed to start an easing cycle in September, Fed officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates. They emphasize that before deciding to cut interest rates, they need to pay close attention to changes in inflation and the job market. In particular, the recent slowdown in inflation data provides some room for rate cuts, but the Fed is also worried that cutting interest rates too early may trigger new economic risks.
At the same time, the US presidential election has also become one of the focuses that influence the direction of financial policies. With the end of the first TV debate between candidates, Trump's average lead over Biden in national polls has triggered widespread discussion in the market. Trump's policy proposals, such as extending tax cuts, restricting immigration and imposing tariffs on imported goods, are believed to be likely to push up US inflation levels. This expectation has put pressure on US bond yields. However, the recent ups and downs of US economic data have also brought a certain buffering effect to the market, and interest rate policies still have a large room for flexible operation.
In short, the macro market this week will be full of variables and challenges. Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in the Fed's interest rate attitude, the release of important economic data, and the progress of the US presidential election. As for the crypto market, the SEC is likely to respond to the Ethereum ETF this week. Although it is unlikely to be directly approved, any good news is likely to boost the overall sentiment of the crypto market. We will keep a close eye on this.
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