In a recent update, Bloomberg Intelligence's senior macro strategist, Mike McGlone, has suggested that the era of significant Bitcoin (BTC) price surges may be coming to an end. McGlone's assessment is based on the decreasing volatility of Bitcoin and its potential to align with the characteristics of more traditional assets.
Bitcoin's 90-day volatility is currently around three times that of gold. While this still marks a relatively elevated level of volatility, it is significantly lower than the peak of approximately 12 times observed in 2018. This suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing a maturation process, potentially indicating a decline in its earlier levels of volatility and a move towards more stable price behavior.
McGlone's analysis also delves into the possible implications of Bitcoin's evolving nature. He warns that the cryptocurrency might be entering a period of extended retracement, during which the rate of growth could slow down. He notes that certain economic indicators, such as the yield on the US Treasury two-year note, have the potential to influence Bitcoin's trajectory. A return of around 10% guaranteed over a two-year period might lead to significant changes in the cryptocurrency landscape. McGlone draws a parallel between this potential scenario and the period before the global financial crisis, as well as the birth of Bitcoin.
Furthermore, McGlone's examination of the 100-week moving averages indicates a prevailing downward bias in Bitcoin's price movements. This is particularly notable when compared to the yield on US Treasury bonds, which has seen significant changes over the last two decades.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $26,109. The cryptocurrency has experienced a slight decline of 0.11% in the past 24 hours and a more significant drop of over 11% in the past seven days. These recent price movements, along with the observations shared by McGlone, reflect the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market and the ongoing shifts in investor sentiment and behavior.
What does this mean for investors?
The decreasing volatility of Bitcoin could make it a more attractive investment for some investors. However, it is important to remember that Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset class and its price is still volatile. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance before investing in Bitcoin.
Overall, McGlone's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class. However, it is still too early to say whether the era of significant price surges is over. Investors should carefully monitor the cryptocurrency market and make their own investment decisions based on their individual circumstances.
Here are some additional things to consider:
The price of Bitcoin is still highly correlated with the price of other risk assets, such as stocks and commodities. This means that Bitcoin could be vulnerable to sell-offs in these other asset classes.
The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is still evolving. This could have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.
The adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors is still in its early stages. This could drive up the price of Bitcoin in the future.
Ultimately, the future price of Bitcoin is uncertain. However, McGlone's analysis provides some insights into the factors that could influence its price. Investors should carefully consider these factors before making any investment decisions.
