US data on Thursday showed that the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter was 1.4%, higher than the expected value of 1.3% and higher than the previous value of 1.30%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter was 3.7%, higher than the expected value of 3.60% and higher than the previous value of 3.60%. The final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the first quarter was 1.5%, lower than the expected value of 2% and lower than the previous value of 2%. A big rebound. The US first quarter data is a bit outdated because the second quarter will end in a few days. The core PCE price index for May will be released on Friday, with a previous value of 2.8% and an expected value of 2.6%. The market believes that inflation will fall again, which may be a small positive.
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The EU's crypto-asset regulation, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), becomes law in 2023. MiCA sets licensing requirements for cryptocurrency issuers and service providers (including exchange platforms). The stablecoin rules come into effect in June. Issuers of asset-referenced tokens (ARTs) and electronic money tokens (EMTs) must make sustainability disclosures from June 30, 2024, and crypto-asset service providers must begin developing disclosure requirements by the end of the year. Part of the rules is the reporting requirements for ESG data. With the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) taking effect on June 30, Bitstamp will delist all euro stablecoins that do not comply with the regulation, and Bitstamp will not list or promote any new tokens that do not comply with the regulation. ECB DLT trial: Stuttgart Stock Exchange and Germany's four largest banks (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, DZ Bank and LBBW) will conduct tokenized securities settlement. These banks will be directly connected to the blockchain network as trading and settlement partners. State Street Bank and Galaxy Asset Management announced a partnership to launch a new generation of digital asset investment strategies, directly participating in the digital asset ecosystem with a total value of US$2.4 trillion. According to ArKham data, on June 26, the address marked as "German Government" transferred out 345.338 BTC again. On June 27, the address marked as "U.S. Government" sent 4,000 BTC to CB. Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp said that since 2014, the U.S. government has sold at least 195,091 BTC, making a profit of more than $366 million. According to BitcoinTreasuries data, the U.S. government currently owns 213,546 BTC, with a market value of more than $13 billion, making it one of the largest BTC holders in the world.
CryptoQuant said that BTC has experienced a correction of about 15% in the past three weeks, and with BTC's larger correction yesterday, signs of a possible local bottom have emerged. Futures market: Open interest has decreased by about $3 billion in the past three weeks, mainly long liquidations. The funding rate for perpetual contracts has fallen to near zero, indicating a more balanced relationship between buyers and sellers, resulting in a healthier and less overly optimistic price structure. Short-term holders: The price has exceeded the realized price of short-term holders, which is $62,600. Currently, the average profitability of short-term holders is slightly negative, which has historically been a support point for local corrections in an uptrend. Matrixport said that BTC is oversold, and historical data shows that there is usually a certain rebound after oversold. At present, the relative strength index (RSI) has reached its lowest point since August last year. On June 26, the U.S. spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $21.4 million, of which Grayscale GBTC had a net inflow of $4.3 million. Media reports said that because the S-1 document changes of the previous round of ETH spot ETFs were very "slight", the SEC could contact the issuer "at any time" to inform it of the ETF issuance date. ETH spot ETF industry executives and other participants said that the SEC may approve the spot ETH ETF as early as July 4, as negotiations between asset management companies and regulators have entered the final stage. Asset management companies including BlackRock, VanEck and eight others are seeking SEC approval for these funds. One of the lawyers said that this only left the "final touches" and approval may not exceed one or two weeks. Analyst Wily Woo explained when BTC will be able to develop enough to rival the US dollar based on BTC's historical adoption curve. Woo said that the financial community now considers BTC to be an asset class, but the total market value of the asset is only about $1.2 trillion. Analysts pointed out that the value of asset classes is usually measured in tens of trillions of dollars. This expectation of BTC means that the U.S. financial community expects three things: BTC will break through the $10 trillion market value mark, comparable to the U.S. dollar in size, and become a reserve asset. If the Internet's S curve continues, BTC may still be in its early stages.
Data on Thursday showed that the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States was 1.4%, higher than the previous value of 1.30%; the final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter was 3.7%, higher than the previous value of 3.60%; the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the first quarter was 1.5%, significantly lower than the previous value of 2%. Among them, the warning signal to the Federal Reserve is that the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits in the United States last week rose to 1.84 million, the highest level since the end of 2021. BlackRock's $54 billion iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) attracted $2.7 billion in inflows on Monday, the largest single-day inflow since the fund was founded in 2002. ETF analyst Athanasios Psarofagis said: "It looks like investors are starting to go against the Fed again. They are betting on the Fed to cut interest rates. If the bet is right, the price trend will fluctuate violently. Societe Generale strategists Manish Kabra and Charles de Boissezon said that the S&P 500 is at a "critical turning point" and will be accompanied by the Fed's interest rate cut cycle by the first quarter of 2025. These strategists stick to their "very optimistic" target of 5,500 points for the S&P 500 index at the end of this year. Some indicators show that the peak of the valuation bubble has not yet been reached. The mathematical model of the TMT bubble shows that if a bubble is formed, the S&P 500 index will reach 6,666 points" (the current S&P 500 index is 5,475 points). The two factors that currently dominate the price of Bitcoin are profit-taking and negative external stimuli. This week, the sell-off was $58,000, and the decline stopped and rebounded to sideways. Whether the big cake has bottomed out this time, the subsequent external stimulus includes the core PCE price index released by the United States on Friday and the CPI price index in early July. The market believes that these two inflation indicators will decline, which may be a small positive. There is no endless rise or endless fall. After a correction, there is the next wave of rise. Keep a good attitude. The lows and highs in the bull market will get higher and higher. #VanEck提交首个SolanaETF #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美联储何时降息？
