Today is October 6th, let’s analyze the market.

I bet on a wave of upward news in the afternoon, but the US non-farm data was released in the evening, showing strong US employment and rising expectations for a Fed rate hike, so the market experienced a small correction.

Here I want to emphasize again that the Fed's rate hikes have basically ended, and there will be at most one more. All the hawkish statements at present are expectation management, so don't be scared by the paper tiger.

However, there is still a long way to go before interest rates are lowered. I estimate that high interest rates will have to be maintained for at least six months before they are lowered. If interest rates are lowered in advance, it means that the economy is really in trouble, which would make the situation even more serious.

Next, let’s return to the board.

$BTC In fact, the trend is not weak. The daily line is consistent with the analysis of the day before yesterday. At present, it is under pressure from the downward trend line. The hourly level is an upward channel. We use the trend line and the lower edge of the channel as the boundary between strength and weakness.

However, it should be noted that due to poor liquidity and insufficient market speculation in the current market, there are often what appear to be breakthroughs, but they are actually false breakthroughs. Be careful if you chase a breakthrough.

The lower edge of the channel is around 26800-27000. If it reaches this position, you can still do a small long position, but if it falls below, you need to strictly stop loss.

Bitcoin has been very strong recently, much stronger than Ethereum. Before this plunge, Bitcoin was at 28,600 and Ethereum was at 1,850. But in this rebound, Bitcoin was untied, while Ethereum only rebounded to 1,750 at most, a difference of 6 points.

Bitcoin's market share has reached the important mark of 50%, and the exchange rate is expected to fall back to a certain extent. You can consider observing the exchange rates of other currencies against Bitcoin.

The above is a suggestion for short-term speculation. In the long run, it is safer to invest in Bitcoin. This is because bear market funds prefer Bitcoin, and the traditional internal narrative of the currency circle has changed. In 2020, Bitcoin was also the only strong one, and Ethereum and altcoins only started to catch up in the late bull market.

$ETH Like the BTC channel, there is a trend line support. If the trend line is broken, there are 3 horizontal supports. In general, it is still a weak linkage. The next wave of outbreak may be the time confirmation of the Cancun upgrade. In the current market, Bitcoin is still the first choice.

Most of the altcoins are down, with only a few market makers and major players making trouble. Several popular altcoins are suppressed by a large trend line, and you can consider covering some positions after breaking through.

SOL is going strong, with a head and shoulders bottom expected. Look for opportunities to buy on dips.

In general, the market is not weak. However, most currencies are suppressed, so it is better to wait and see.

Many analysts say it will go to 8000, and some say it will go to 3000. No one knows whether it will fall to this position. What is certain is that with the current market situation, it is impossible to go down directly in one step. Even if it falls, there will be a violent rebound in the middle, so you can't blindly say that you are bearish and go all-in.

We just need to do it step by step, and do what the market signals. Don't be too ambitious.