FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BTC had broken the $53k barrier weeks ago and kept pumping and made newer and newer all time highs this has happened.
PLEASE NOTE:
$BTC has risen in a wave pattern making higher highs and higher lows which usually happens in a bull run... corrections have been fast and furious but soon they were bought into to make higher highs... during this process BTC formed a trendline at any given point of time and whenever it fell it always took support at that particular trendline and only to create a pin bar formation signalling bullish reversal and continued its journey upwards.
FOR THE FIRST TODAY THAT PATTERN SEEMS TO BE BROKEN on the 4hr TF. The trendline formed on the 4hr TF not only broke the support of $71500 but the retest also failed and BTC fell below support which is a rejection candle. THOUGH it is an early estimate but BTC now need to close the day above $71500 to cancel this view. A daily close below $71500 will confirm a bearish reversal atleast for sometime with support only at $68500. My view point is that since the bull run has started , daily close above or below certain levels have always played significant roles in the direction of BTC. Afterall most surges have only occurred in the first 4hr candle of the day surprisingly after the close of the US Market.
BITCOIN showing signs of exhaustion and whales don't seem interested in pushing beyond $68000 after the furious fall that happened a few days ago. If BTC keeps getting rejected from above $68000 , it might lead to a larger crash. FOR now bouncing between $64,500 and $68000 looks to be the order of the day.
HISTORICALLY , when volatility gets very low...that's when the big move is incoming. ONE way to check that is to use bollinger bands on smaller timeframes like 15min or 1hr. IF there is a squeeze you get ready for the explosion.
WHEN THE DUST SETTLES YOU WILL RELEASE THE RUG UNDER YOU HAS BEEN PULLED TO MAKE YOU FALL.
MY FELLOW TRADERS AND SMALL INVESTORS , in my yesterday's post I shared with you guys the bad news where BTC was scarce and there were no sellers for BTC on any exchanges.
I told you guys that this is not bullish but it is actually BEARISH.
NOW THERE STANDS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION IN FRONT OF US...
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WE SO FAR SAW
1) A FLASH CRASH and
2) UNBEARABLE VOLATILITY
NOW WE ARE GOING TO WITNESS THE WORST PHASE OF THIS BLOODY GAME... AND THAT IS RUG PULLS.
RUGS PULLS happen everyday ...it is not new... but the intensity and scale of the RUG PULLS this time around should be insane.
SOME MEME COINS HAVE RISEN SO MUCH THAT IF BTC FALLS AGAIN AND IN A FLASH ... THESE ALTS WILL FALL MORE THAN THEIR RISE ....50% - 60%
AS the analysis scratch their heads for clues as to what is going to happen next and whether we are going to endless go up and up all sorts of possible permutations and combinations are being used to find the exact direction of BITCOIN.
HERE ARE SOME OF THE RAREST TYPE OF INDICATIONS THAT ARE BEING USED RIGHT NOW.
1) THE WEEKLY AND THE MONTHLY RSI Both being in extremely overbought territories above 90
2) THE BULL-BEAR INDICATOR BY CRYPTOQUANT For the first time in recent history this indicator has flashed OVERHEATED .... meaning BITCOIN might reverse soon.
3) THE WYCKOFF WAVES AND PERCENTILE CHART ON DAILY TF The 5 wave indicator is showing this is the 5th wave on daily timeframe.
ALSO AN INTERESTING PERCITILE WAVE CHART SHOWS BITCOIN HAD RISEN
1) 13.7% in its first uprise 2) 26.7% in its second uprise 3) 26.7% in its third uprise 4) $66900 would be approx 13.7% level in this current 4th uprise.
JUST MARK THIS POINT:
THE RECENT HIGHER LOW FOR BITCOIN WAS 61,300$ and then it was $58,800 and then $50500 . One should be cautious if BTC breaks the first higher low and be worried if BTC breaks the second higher low but throw in the towel and run once BTC breaks the THIRD HIGHER LOW of $50,500
BTC monthly RSI is at 93 which is higher than the RSI at $69,000 ATH. WHILE BTC remains extremely overbought on all higher timeframes,the fear and greed index also crosses 85 which was again historically the highest.
IT is very hard to predict whether BTC will correct or not... SOME golden words by LEGENDARY INVESTOR WARREN BUFFET come to mind. "WHEN EVERYONE GETS GREEDY ....FEAR and WHEN EVERYONE FEARS....YOU SHOULD BECOME GREEDY"
If this is the real bull market one thing is for sure... BULL MARKET CORRECTIONS ARE MORE FIERCE AND FASTER...
LAST TIME BTC FIRST TOUCHED 65,000$ there was severe capitulation to $28000 within a couple of weeks.
WE have had a non-stop move from $38000 to $65500. I can just hope and pray that the small investors have benefited from this upmove and the most important thing... SMALL investors and traders could take their profits home and not loose what they have earned.
JUST REMEMBER : A CANDLE BURNS THE BRIGHTEST JUST MOMENTS BEFORE IT IS ABOUT TO COMPLETELY MELT.
THE MENTALITY OF TRADING THAT CAN HELP YOU OUTSMART WHALES.
DOES this happen to you that whenever you take a trade your stoploss keeps hitting or the trendlines you have drawn get breached again and again. The indicators you have followed haven't given you any benefits? Well that's the story of 90% of retail traders and that's the bread n butter of whales.
SO HERE I AM GOING TO GIVE YOU A FEW RULES WHICH IF YOU FOLLOW , WILL MAKE YOU MENTALLY VERY STRONG AND YOUR CHANCES OF FAILURE WILL BE LESS THAN 10%.
1) If you want to see if the strategy you are going to apply in a particular trade is a win win strategy or not than you should place your buy/sell order at the stop loss price that you were going to set and see how many times the price hits your buy/sell order and plan accordingly
2) A FAMOUS INSTITUTIONAL PHRASE FOR RETAIL TRADERS IS:
YOUR STOPLOSS IS MY ENTRY AND YOUR ENTRY IS MY EXIT
$BTC local top at 64000$ is an extremely bad sign?
$BTC just got rejected from 64000$ and has fallen almost 10% in just 1 candle... Though it is early to establish any concrete decision but today and tomorrow are the most important days of this entire bull run since 15,000$ BTC.
THE REASON IS :
1) On monthly basis BTC has never closed above 61,400$ and tomorrow is the monthly closing
2) $57500 is 0.78 fib level and it is a very strong resistance on a weekly closing basis.
3) On liquidity maps there is no or very little liquidity above $64000 and market makers need liquidity which is only on the downside... mostly 54,000 and 50,000.
64,000$ top will make a triple top for BTC of all times and in the short to mid term that will be a very bearish sign and a very hard to conquer level for BTC
SO my dear friends we are at a significant point and today's closing and tomorrow's closing will decide whether 50,000$ or 110,000$ will come first.
$BTC MOONSHOT while others dint perform equally well....
I have many times seen people asking in comments section why BTC took a MOONSHOT while all others haven't moved much. EVEN ETHER hasn't equally done well
WHY ONLY BITCOIN SHOT UP and others dint?
THE ANSWER IS...
BTC has an etf approved to its name and large institutions are for now only interested in accumulating BTC.
HAVE YOU HEARD any large institution investing billion dollars in my other currency ?
THE MONEY THAT HAS FLOWN INTO BTC WILL REMAIN IN BTC. If at all money will move out of BTC when the large institutions sell, the money will again be converted to USDT or USD not any other crypto.
When we talk about money coming in other cryptos from BTC... THATS just large retail or small retailer money not the big bucks.
If this phenomenon continues we can see BTC at unprecedented valuations while others just merely performing.
BTC suddenly spurted up to about 55,000 usd and not many could ride this uptrend. Most of you fear entering the market coz a correction could melt your wallet. BUT here is a strategy that I myself have applied and always used and benefitted a lot when markets have run way leaving me behind.
WHAT'S THE STRATEGY ? FIRST of all , if you feel that the market has run up quite a lot and there may be a short term correction
YOU can long BTC spot or futures at this price and SHORT $BTC quarterly 0329 as well as $BTC quarterly 0629
1) IF you are bullish on the market the long : short ratio should be 1.5 : 1 in favour of longs
2) IF you are bearish than keep the ratio 1:1.5
BOOK profits on longs whenever BTC gives a reversal candle on the upside on higher timeframe and ride your short till it breaks even or gives you profit.
YOU can also keep the long short ratio of 1:1 and profit from wild swings as the volatility is very high.
DYOR
TRADE SAFE TRADE SMART
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE
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THERE are reports of US govt crackdown on Tether (USDT)'s parent company.
The cryptocurrency market is very delicately poised right now with $BTC BTC and$ETH ETH just hitting fresh highs for 2024 and most ALT coins have had a phenomenal run upwards. If this report from JP MORGAN is to be believed ... Tether (USDT) which is the largest stablecoin in this space will face troubles going forward. The FUD this news will create will send ripples through the entire cryptocurrency space and might lead to a fall in all cryptocurrencies as well. This news also makes total sense as JP MORGAN itself is planning to launch its own stable coin and would want the biggest stablecoin (USDT) to loose it's lustre for them to excel.
IN the long run this news will make people run to buy the larger cryptos which they trust.
To cut the long story short we might witness unprecedented volatility in the market and that can lead to melting a lot of portfolios.
CAUTION IS ADVICED
TRADE SAFE TRADE SMART
DYOR
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BTC took just one 4hr candle to go from a low of $51,000 to $52,800 This surge might have burnt so many hands of poor retail traders but just understand one thing.
YOU ARE JUST THEIR EXIT LIQUIDITY
THIS Short squeeze may have caused the retail traders to cover their positions and some to even buy longs while the larger players use them just to exit their long positions.
It won't take a while before $BTC would take a U turn equally fast creating havoc.
BTC DOMINANCE BOTTOMED OUT? $ETH flashes a really scary signal 🚦🛑
The BTC DOMINANCE INDEX on Binance has held its very long term weekly and monthly trendline that it had respected since 2022 and also bounced after touching it... ALTHOUGH it is still early to call it a bottom but from what it looks like.. THE BTC DOMINANCE INDEX is reversing. THIS couples with ETHERIUM breaking down from it's 4 hourly trendline and now it might test $3000. If it will not hold this level , we will have an epic bloodbath in all ALTS.
$3000 on ETH is a really important level... Also keep an eye on BTCDOM on Binance, if it gets back above $2100 the consider the ALT SEASON as OVER. IF BTC DOMINANCE breaks below $2050 - $2065 for 3 consecutive days... we will have a full force ALT season.
LIKE I presented my analysis in my previous post, there will be some extreme moves in ALTS on both sides burning a lot of hands. TYPICALLY this has happened every time $BTC is about to make a major move on either side....mostly downside.
So like I always say
TRADE SAFE TRADE SMART
DYOR
THIS is not a financial advice
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$BTC DOMINANCE NEAR SUPPORT ....ALT SEASON or ALT CRASH?
BTCDOM $2085 on Binance is near support of $2065 on daily , 3d and weekly timeframes.
On one hand the BTC Dominance index has made a double top on the daily timeframe which is a bearish pattern, while on the weekly timeframes it is still bullish which signals 2 possibilities.
1) If $BTCDOM closes below $2060 for 3 consecutive days , this will trigger an ALTSEASON we haven't seen in history. EVERY small and medium cap coin will have the biggest run of their lives lead by $ETH which will also have a parabolic rise (signs of which are already seen)
2) If BTCDOM finds support at this level of $2060 and reverses .... this will trigger a mother of all crashes in the ALT market space. A bloodbath which will continue for a fairly long time.
THERE are equally high chances of both scenarios being played and high voltage drama and very high volatility could be expected around this level.
I would advice extreme caution to all my fellow traders in the comming weeks.
A lot of portfolios are about to melt.
TRADE SAFE TRADE SMART
DYOR
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
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BTC broke it's hourly trendline towards the downside before a couple of hours and now is retesting it. If it gets a rejection we might see it again going towards $51,000 MOREOVER , earlier today it retested and got rejected at it's 4 hourly trendline at $51,800 that it had broken towards the downside a few days ago. Both signals so far are bearish and a fall in BTC could be a blood bath for ALTS which have had a phenomenal rise.
Also I would like to highlight that last weekend BTC did the same. It gave a false upmove during the weekend and gave up all its gains by Monday.
Weekends these days are more of traps and rugpulls.
Like I mentioned in my previous post has quite a potential to rise due to very little supply of tokens.
While BTC has 21M tokens in circulation DEGO also has 21M in circulation. It is one of the older small cap coins and hasn't performed much during this bullish period in the crypto market.
It has a good chance to double it's value in no time. Those with mid term point of view can nibble into the coin at current price as it has just bounced off support and showing bottomed out patterns and reversal signals.
My fellow traders I have come across some eye boggling shift in the approach of whales today. While the BTC Dominance has bottomed out at $2100 and now the RSI divergence has occured on its hourly timeframe signalling weakness in ETH and other ALTS or even a local top in ALTS. ETH, meanwhile has again got a rejection from $3000 level. This is bad news for ALTS and we might see sharp correction in ALTS lead by $ETH
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I already highlighted a strategy to trade alts in an uncertain market in my previous post.
People wanting to protect their investments in the near term can nibble into BTCDOM for insurance against a crash in ALTCOINS.
Remember : In CRYPTO , MONEY protected today will reward you more than MONEY earned tomorrow.
ALT coins are the most risky bets you can take in the crypto market but the rewards they give are phenomenal. That is one reason why people risk almost everything they possess to trade these small and medium cap coins.
90% of traders loose money trading alts and thus risk management becomes extremely important.
So what should you do. PUT A STOPLOSS?
Having a stoploss is no doubt extremely important but mostly whales and institutions hunt your stoploss and you get pushed out of the market at a loss of not only money but also opportunity to earn huge returns.
So what is a strategy that can prevent you from loosing huge amounts of money.
It is as follows.
Normally alts move up when BTC is sideways to down and ETH is going up at the same time.
So whenever you want to go long on an alt coin or a group of alt coins.... do these things ...
1) BUY BTCDOM as a hedge at a ratio of 0.5 to 1 to your investment amount in alts
2) Short ETH at a ratio of 0.25 to 1
3) Keep a deep stoploss
I can guarantee you... you will not loose money because of sudden crash of the market and the net profit from this straddle will be higher than usual ... Also it will give you a very good night sleep.
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