Where is Bitcoin heading? It's a pressing question and one that needs to be answered. Coin Bureau breaks down exactly where we are in this cycle and where we could be going. If you hold Bitcoin or are thinking of picking it up, then this is a video you just can't miss.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice. It is purely sensational informational educational content.
Current Market Status
At the time of shooting, Bitcoin is a little above $65k and has been between $70k to $65k, hovering in that range for several weeks. It has also been two months since one of the most important moments in Bitcoin's market life cycle: the halving event. Historically, halving events have been precursors to bull markets, but this year's event has been quite unsensational by historical norms.
Historical Context and Halving Impact
In previous years, we have seen Bitcoin rally by 185% in 2012, 122% in 2016, and over 300% in 2020 post-halving. However, this year Bitcoin is only up by 50% so far. The reduction in Bitcoin's inflation post-halving is relatively mild, leading to a less pronounced supply shock.
The Role of Bitcoin ETFs
A significant difference this year is the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which have pushed Bitcoin to new all-time highs prior to the halving. This new dynamic could indicate a shorter bull market or a completely new market cycle driven by ETF flows. The total addressable market for these ETFs is massive, potentially reaching as high as $48 trillion, according to a research report by Galaxy Digital.
Institutional Price Predictions
Several institutional research teams have made notable predictions:
Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin reaching $150k by the end of the year if Trump wins the US election, with an end-of-2025 forecast of $200k.
Bernstein has also set a target of $150k by the end of 2025, recently updating their prediction to $200k.
Independent Price Predictions
Independent analysts have also weighed in:
Peter Brandt suggests that Bitcoin could reach a cycle high of $130k to $150k by early September 2025.
Plan B's stock-to-flow model predicts Bitcoin at $150k by the end of the year and potentially $800k by the end of next year, though this is highly optimistic and should be taken with caution.
Coin Bureau's Perspective
Coin Bureau believes we are in a combination of a typical Bitcoin market cycle with elements of a more elongated super cycle. The impact of the halving on the supply side is likely to be negligible over time, but the demand side is entirely different due to the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs provide a superhighway for institutional and retail investors to buy Bitcoin.
Market Influences:
Inflation is trending lower, and a potential Fed pivot is predicted for September.
Bitcoin ETFs are expected to start overtaking gold ETFs in assets under management.
A Trump victory could significantly boost the market, given his favorable stance on crypto.
Based on these factors, Coin Bureau estimates Bitcoin could reach $150k to $200k by the top of the next cycle, potentially towards the end of 2025. However, it is crucial to consider various risks and uncertainties in the global economic landscape.
Conclusion:
Coin Bureau emphasizes the importance of doing your own research (DYOR) and managing risks. While Bitcoin price predictions can be exciting, they should not be viewed as gospel.
What are your personal price predictions for Bitcoin by the end of this year and the next? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investment decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
