In the analysis of BTC cycle tops, the dominance of coins held for less than 3 months is a key characteristic. Historically, this suggests that long-term holders have already profited, leaving the market to speculators and new entrants, leading to increased volatility.

In past cycles, over 70% of the realized cap was held by this short-term group during market peaks. Currently, only about 35% of the realized cap is held by these short-term holders, comparable to the early stages of previous bull markets.

Another critical indicator at cycle tops is the profit level among short-term holders, measured by the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). In the current cycle, the highest peak was 1.05 when Bitcoin reached its all-time high, now operating in a more neutral zone.

This market structure suggests we have not yet reached peak euphoria. The dominance of long-term holders forms a solid price support base. The robust structure and relative scarcity of short-term holders make a swift transition to a bear market less likely, indicating potential for a significant rally before the cycle top formation.