Attention đđ
We're getting closer to the most important moment in this cycle so far, we have inflation data coming out in 2.5 hours, here's my expectation:
1. Inflation will out at 8:30 EST time zoon and be around 3.2-3.3% because of drops in gasoline price which affects food and energy pricing. We also continue to have lower car prices. If inflation is 3.3% or lower, BTC will be back close to 72k before the FED meeting. If inflation is 3.5% or higher, we will drop down to 64k before the FED meeting.
2. The FED interest rate decision will be at 2 PM EST, I expect a 25 basis points cut because of many reasons. I know all economists in the world expect no-change but I think there's a 70% chance of having a cut tonight and here are the reasons. First, canada and europe started cutting this month, they accordinate with the US before doing this, all the west cut or hike together all the time, so I don't expect the FED to deviate from this. Especially that Powell visited the netherlands to coordinate last month before they started cutting in June. Secondly, we had inflation date changed to be before the FED meeting, it clearly means they want to take a decision tonight. Thirdly, we have congress members rushing the FED to cut in a letter, we saw this kind of behaviour right before ETH approval.
If inflation is positive and we went to 71-72k range, and the FED started cutting rates, we will break out to the 80's by tomorrow. If unfortenately, inflation is negative and the FED had a hawkish sentiment, we might go down to 64k then to 60k or from 64k and recover to the upside slightly after the FED meeting.
Possible trade that can be taken from here:
Buy now at 67-67.5k
Take profit at 71.2k, 78k, 81k
Stop loss at 66k and reverse trade if you like from 65.9k down to 64.5k
I bought what I sold before a little early at 68k but I am setting the same take profit and stop loss now.
