I used to think we were in the stage of optimism, but now I'm starting to think we're actually closer to the stage of disbelief/hope. Why? A few brief thoughts on the market. The rapid mood swing suggests that people haven't bought into the bull market as much as a genuine macroeconomic phase of enthusiasm/euphoria would require. There are several reasons for this (I mean exclusively altcoins - not $BTC):
1. In terms of time, the cycle is in its infancy (compared to previous periods). Upward trends based on time are important for forming true belief/exposure, not just based on price (performance).
2. Most altcoins have hardly grown compared to what is expected from a full-fledged bull cycle (except for certain sectors, such as memes/AI, which have clearly exceeded all expectations). A broader altcoin rally is needed to strengthen this belief.
3. Retail trading hasn't returned. Maybe some participants from 2021 have returned to play with memes, but overall retail trading isn't chain-linked. They just want to throw some money on CEX and play with altcoins. There are plenty of metrics confirming this.
If we are indeed approaching the hope phase, the journey will still be full of dumps, dips, and FUDs designed to shake everyone up."