25th of February.
And in about 2 months we're gonna approach the halving, an historical bullish catalyst.
How about charting a bit analyzing the market and pointing out potential outcomes in order to be prepared?
🔸Bitcoin macro chart 🔸
Let's take a look at the logarithmic chart:
What we can notice, historically speaking, that there are 4 main phases:
- The parabolic phase (green box)
- The mark-down (red box)
- The macro accumulation range to break for initiating the parabolic phase (blue box)
- The pre-parabolic re-accumulation phase (yellow box)
We're currently floating inside the yellow box that should anticipate the most violent phase of the market, which usually comes after the bullish catalyst of halving.
However, what is interesting to observe, is that through cycles the 0.618 has always acted as a watershed during "mid-cycles":
- In June 2016 we stopped earlier
- In June 2019 we get rejected
- In this cycle we broke above
This is something that never happened and could potentially flash a left translated cycle, meaning that the peak could come earlier to the mid-point of 60 day cycle, therefore anticipating the classic end of the cycle (pointed out, less or more, in October 2025)
🔸Closer look 🔸
Now that we've seen the macro situation, let's take a closer look by zooming in a little bit:
If you took a look at the previous analysis I made, I pointed out 2 important liquidity areas (💧🔨) where we could have seen a potential pullback.
Bitcoin has in fact took out the first level (notice the wick) and we could now plausible see the 2 pullback zones to get hit.
The first one would be a retest of the January highs, while the second and deeper one, a revisit of the range high where there was the high activity trading cluster, at 44K.
If we zoom out on the 4HR the situation is even clearer:
We have those 2 inefficiency areas that could give us a -8% or a -17/20%, totally aligned with past retracements and definitely healthy for the whole macro structure, producing 2 potential higher lows.
These areas are also confirmed by the volume voids.
(Fear & Greed Index is at 74, flashing greed that could sustain the thesis)
"Mate, is it possible to see deeper prices?"
I always tend to remain elastic enough to consider every potential scenario, I never pick blindly one side or another.
But at the moment, the trend is clearly bullish even with lower prices and especially considering in which stage of the cycle we're walking on.
🔸Regarding altcoins
Well, we're currently holding the 0.382 at 230B and this is good, but overall we're still lagging behind Bitcoin with a 40% gap on the whole sector.
This is completely normal since we will see the risk aversion heating up once Bitcoin breaks ATH.
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Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this post/article includes personal opinions. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. Decrypted Labs is not responsible for any financial losses.
