What is a "black swan" in the market and can it be curbed
A "black swan" is a hard to predict and a rare event that nevertheless has significant consequences. The theory was invented by American mathematician and economist Nassim Taleb in 2004. Almost all significant scientific discoveries, historical and political events, art and cultural achievements, such as the development and introduction of the Internet, World War I, the stock market crash in the United States in 1929, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the global economic #crisis of 2008 are "black swan" type events.
Against this background, the cryptocurrency market also collapsed. #USDC #Stablecoin has been detached from the dollar after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, where Circle held $3.3 billion in collateral. Bloomberg writes that this is the largest bank collapse in the U.S. since the 2008 crisis. The reason was the withdrawal by the technological startups of their funds from the bank accounts. The financial regulator in California said that the bank will get a temporary administration and insured depositors will get their money no later than Monday morning. According to Bloomberg, SVB had about $209 billion in total assets and $175 billion in deposits as of December 2022.
How do investors prepare for black swans?
#BlackSwans can affect almost all areas. Sometimes events occur almost instantaneously. So how do you protect yourself from their influence?
In his book, Taleb wrote that the best way to mitigate the negative influence of black swans is not to try to predict them. According to the author, it is instead necessary to develop a stable and sustainable plan that will help reduce the probability of such an event or mitigate its consequences.
Diversify capital by asset type and location
Accept that the next black swan is bound to happen
Take advantage of the opportunities that black swans provide
In 2017-2019, the economist spoke positively about #bitcoin , calling it the first organic currency. He saw the strength of digital money in the fact that it could not be controlled by central banks.
However, Taleb later changed his mind. The economist said that we can't rely on bitcoin - it won't save money from inflation. According to Taleb, cryptocurrency is not a hedging tool and does not protect against geopolitical risks. "Bitcoin is not an insurance against geopolitical events, but just the opposite."
Black Swans and other threats really do come down to risk management and its basic applications. A good formula to apply is RISK = THREAT X VULNERABILITY X CONSEQUENCE. We can use this formula combined with new advanced computing to better predict, synthesize data, and mitigate extreme events. It is never too late to start planning.