According to Bloomberg, Asian equities were poised for gains on Friday following signs of resilience in the US labor market, which lifted US stocks. The rally was driven by US jobless claims data showing fewer people applied for unemployment benefits than expected, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown.
Treasuries dipped across the curve on Thursday, with the selloff led by shorter maturities. Bonds held their losses after a weak $25 billion sale of 30-year government debt. Swap traders further trimmed bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The global repricing has been so sharp that at one point, interest-rate swaps implied a 60% chance of an emergency rate cut by the Fed in the coming week, well before its next scheduled meeting in September. Current pricing suggests about 40 basis points of cuts for September.
Meanwhile, steel and aluminum producers in Canada were urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to take action. In Asia, China’s inflation and producer prices are due, while money supply and new lending data could be released as soon as Friday. Markets are closed in Singapore.
All major groups in the S&P 500 advanced, while the Russell 2000 of smaller firms added 2.4%. Despite the rally, Wall Street professionals remain cautious about whether Monday’s selloff across global equities marked the worst of the correction or if there’s still more to come. US stocks remain at risk of more severe declines if growth continues to decelerate and the Fed does not show urgency in easing monetary policy. Equities are no longer a one-way upside trade but increasingly a two-sided debate on growth downside risks, Fed timing, crowded positioning, rich valuation, and rising election and geopolitical uncertainties.