Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s Impact
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The prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely.

However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop a recession in the United States. On the flip side, […]

There’s a good chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will slash the federal funds rate at the September FOMC meeting and the chances of a 25 basis points (bps) slash is the most likely. CME’s Fedwatch tool gives the 25bps odds a 76% chance as of Aug. 25, 2024. However, while rate cuts may be on the cards, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans believes the cuts won’t help avoid a recession.

Every single one of us now believes there’s a recession, and that’s exactly the opposite of what the market believes. There’s a very strong narrative out to the market that we’re facing a soft landing. We don’t believe that. We see signs that the economy is turning down.

Recent indicators, such as the Sahm Rule, which is known for its accuracy in predicting the signs of a recession, have started to blink red. Garry Evans isn’t alone in raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic slump.

This week, “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki took to X to caution about the state of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Peter Schiff has also issued a warning, predicting a looming crisis for the U.S. dollar and an economic collapse on the horizon.

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