Hey guys.
This is a weekly update on Bitcoin.
In the last review the instrument was trading at 67K and I said that the growth will continue, but the price will be in the range of 64-67K for some time, and the zones that are saturated with stop liquidity and can be tested are at 65 and 69K. I also emphasized the zone that should not be nailed for the trend continuation at 62K.
The forecast worked quite accurately, synchronously with the correction of stock indices bitcoin fell to 63.4K and by the end of the week on the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, synchronously with gold, the price began to recover and on the weekend before the conference in Nashville, where Trump spoke, MM arranged a “helicopter” after which the quote continued to grow and on Monday morning is trading at 69.5K.
On the chart there is a strong support around 67K, where very fat clusters are drawn, there may be a move to test these volumes, as some institutional players may fix their positions this week and a more distant support at 62K.
Stop liquidity where huge volumes are accumulated on the liquidation map are at 65.7K and 71.8K, these zones can be tested as market orders (liquidations and stop orders) will push the price when approaching these values.
This week we enter August, statistically August is a weak month for bitcoin, and only 30% of the time the instrument closed above the open.
In general, I expect positive-sideways dynamics, we may see volatility expansion at the upper boundary of the sideways trend, and update the high before the rate cut in September, and then we need to see how the price will behave after the breakdown of the local high (pullback or consolidation above).
Macro data that may affect volatility and should be watched.
August -1 - Fed interest rate decision (95% probability of remaining unchanged)
Stay tuned.
