When you see a new coin soaring, don't rush to short it, wait ten days before shorting it. If you are trapped at this time, you can cut your losses and wait, or open a reverse position and wait. $BTC $DOGS

I adjusted for a summer vacation. I have done some thinking about the contract again. I hope to write some words to help everyone.
Doing contracts is really like fighting against inner demons. In fact, many times, you don’t need to look at too much news. Unless you do ultra-short-term. From the perspective of medium- and long-term contracts and risk control. You don’t need to look at the news. You only need to compare the historical height of the currency price with the current height. If you think it is high, sell it, and if you think it is low, buy it. The key is to hold it. So risk control is very important. If you open a large position, you can’t hold it. Whether you make money or lose money, if you can’t hold it, you will easily lose money in the market. You can only make money if you hold it.
I made two small positions at the beginning of the month, which is very meaningful. I opened a short position for Bitcoin from more than 67,000 and sold it at 52,000 7 days later. I sold pepe from 0.0117 to 0.00747.
I have never made such a large span before, because I couldn’t hold it. First of all, in terms of time, many people may not be able to hold a position for more than 7 days. Secondly, when there is profit, many fluctuations will cause us to close the position.
Finally, I would like to emphasize the key words I want to say. First, determine the direction, second, control the risk, and third, hold it.

After a summer of adjustment, I started again.

This market is not suitable for short selling. The current market is in a high-level fluctuation of Bitcoin and altcoins are flourishing. You can ambush some altcoins with small market capitalizations, and go long on coins between 100 million and 500 million. These coins can rise by dozens of points.

I reiterate my view that the ETF news is a waterfall. My prediction is based on the market maker's mentality, retail investor psychology and data. This is also my last post on ETF news. After posting, I will quietly wait for the face-slapping liquidation or the battle to become a god.
It is not clear at what time the ETF news will be released. Judging from other people's releases, it should be between 4 and 6 am tonight.
Okay, let's continue to talk about the trend I predict when the news is released.
If it does not pass, it will directly waterfall.
If it passes, there is a small probability that it will directly waterfall, and there will be one or two large-scale pull-ups at the 5-minute level, and then waterfall.
I also predict a point for this pull-up. It may directly break 4000 and then waterfall. Even break 4100 and then waterfall. Because 4092 is the previous high, from the market maker's psychology, it is very likely to break the previous high. Therefore, it is safe in the short term if the short position liquidation line can be controlled above 4200.
How to draw the above conclusion. First, the market maker violently pulled it up from 3100, and most of the bullets have been fired. It is time to ship and make a profit. Second, retail investors are motivated by being pulled up, which means that their ability to take over the market has been improved, making it easier for dealers to ship. Third, the current proportion of long positions has reached an astonishing 70%, while the proportion of short positions is only more than 20. There are dealers in 100% of the long positions. When the good news comes, the dealers will make a profit and exit. Once the long positions are closed, it will be a waterfall, because long positions are buying, closing positions is selling, and selling is falling. If a large number of long positions are closed, it will be a waterfall. Fourth, according to the current Binance Ethereum liquidation chart. If it can be directly pulled to 4000 in a short time, the short orders will be liquidated for nearly 200 million, and then the waterfall will fall to 3500, and the long orders will be liquidated for nearly 600 million. Using a piece of news, the long and short positions are really killed, justified. There is no such good opportunity at ordinary times. The dealer will not explode and plummet for no reason. Because the explosion and plummet for no reason cannot mobilize the enthusiasm of retail investors, and their interests cannot be maximized.
OK, the above are all the reasons why I see the waterfall. Tonight I will go short more and more until my position is liquidated. I am willing to pay for my own opinion.

So far, both predictions have been correct. Let's wait and see the last prediction after the ETF news is released at around 4 am tonight. The news is likely to be a waterfall. If it is still a big rise, then I will be liquidated and pay for my prediction. At the moment the news comes out, I will add a large number of short orders.

From now until the 23rd, that is, before the announcement of whether the ETF will be approved or not, I think ETH is likely to be in a volatile market.
In the short term, you can open a long position when the price is low, and a short position when the price is high, and make a small profit back and forth. The points I personally give are 3650 to 3720, where you can open a long position. You can open a short position in the range of 3780 to 3850.
Let me explain why I have such a judgment. First of all, the big players pulled the price from 3100 to 3800 in a few hours. Most of the bullets have been fired. At the current relatively high level, they should quietly sell some goods, and will not sell them on a large scale when the news is announced, fearing that the market will not be able to bear it. Then why is it almost going to rise at 3650? I think it is mainly because of such a pull and the exact time. The enthusiasm of retail investors has been fully mobilized. Now most retail investors will rush in. As long as the dealer stops selling, the price will slowly pull back to around 3800.
This is just my personal opinion, and it is not certain whether it is accurate or not. But personally I would definitely operate in this way: buy low and buy high.

I will share a method to judge whether to open long or short in the short term by using the long-short ratio data of large investors in the contract.
Without further ado, let's get straight to the point. Pepe is bullish in the short term. I came to this conclusion by comparing the long-short ratio of large investors in trading data by account data statistics and by position statistics.
Because the current real-time data shows that this coin is very obvious. The long-short ratio of large investors in trading data is 62.01% to 37.99% according to account data statistics. The long-short ratio of large investors according to position statistics is indeed 31.44% of short positions and 68.56% of long positions.
Maybe some people may not be able to see what I mean. I will explain it to you with simple data. Suppose 10 people open a position. 7 people are short and 3 people are long. But from the perspective of position holdings. The total position of the 7 people who are short is only 30,000 U, while the 3 people who are long have opened a position of 70,000 U.
With such a popular example, you should be able to see whether the real dealer is going long or short.
Of course, this method is only suitable for short-term, and you can run when you make a profit. Because if you pull the closing line of the banker, it will definitely fall. Judging from the current data, Pepe's performance is very obvious. As long as this data does not change significantly, I think the short-term is bullish.
Let me explain that this is just my personal opinion shared selflessly. I hope everyone will not criticize me after reading it. If you think it makes sense, click like. If you think it doesn't make sense, just cross it out. There is no need to criticize me or anything. . . I am really afraid of being criticized. Most people are too angry.

Let me talk about some opinions on Ethereum ETF on the 23rd of this month.
Let me talk about the conclusion first. Regardless of whether the Ethereum ETF can pass on the 23rd, the trend after the exact news on the 23rd is mainly falling.
Let's talk about the possibilities. The first possibility is that the ETF does not pass. There is such a possibility, and it is very likely that it will not pass, because in this way, the ETF can be used to repeatedly hype and pull the market to ship, and then harvest back and forth. Just like when the big cake ETF came out before, analysts thought that the probability of passing was 5% at one time, and then they thought that the probability of passing was 75%. There was a lot of harvesting back and forth. Good things come with time. If it does not pass, it will definitely fall. Wait for the next news to come out and then pull the market to harvest.
The second possibility is that the ETF passed. This time, it will not be hesitated and will pass directly. After all, history can only be used as a reference, and it will not be the same. And with the precedent of big cake, it is also natural that it will pass at one time. I think the probability of passing is at least 70%. So why did it fall after passing? Because the price before the pull was about 3100 this time, this price was directly pulled to the current 3800 or so, and it may rise on the 22nd and 23rd. In this case, let's say the average cost of the banker is 3400 to 3500. This is just the average price of their spot goods, and the contract price is definitely lower. After a short period of time, the trend should rise a little. At this time, the novice leeks will rush in, and it is time for the banker to ship and make a profit. The banker will not play the long game with you. Their funds must be utilized. After harvesting a wave, they will switch to another track to continue harvesting. So in this case, the main trend is to fall.

Killed, air force soldier, died at the age of 28. . . What news is this? Why is it so late at night? Are you afraid to buy because of the low market sentiment? I wonder how many people will receive emails when I wake up tomorrow morning and check my mobile phone.

This situation really caught the air force off guard. Fortunately, my short position was small, and it took 140,000 yuan to blow up, so I can pull it up at will.

There is still profit to be made from shorting in this market, especially for altcoins. Bitcoin has risen from 60,000 to 67,000. Most altcoins have not risen much. The important thing is that if Bitcoin falls from 67,000 to 65,000, altcoins will plummet again.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating at a high level around 67,000, and is only about 6,000 points away from the most recent historical high of 73,000. However, the Shanzhai, which should have flourished, seems to be unable to rise. It rises symbolically when Bitcoin rises, and falls back when Bitcoin fluctuates. Some Shanzhai even plummet without a bottom line. There is only a lower limit, but no lowest. It can only be said that the current market sentiment is low. No matter how you pull it up, you can't mobilize the enthusiasm of retail investors.
So if you are a banker, will you choose to continue to push it up or plummet to boost market sentiment?

Pepe and People finally had a big correction. Pepe was shorted from 0.008 and then pulled up to 0.95. But the range set by the robot is 0.007 to 0.009. It has been beyond the range for five or six days. If it doesn't come down, just hold it. Believe that it will come down. Close the position at around 0.0083. People was shorted from 0.3. Anyway, hold the coins that you don't like. Believe that it will come down.

Greed index is 74, the long-short ratio shows that the air force is starting to exert its strength, and 65% of the votes are bullish. If this wave of judgment is correct, it is time to start a correction. First see 65,000.

I found a rule: if Bitcoin surges and then fluctuates at a high level, then altcoins will flourish. If Bitcoin surges and then falls, altcoins will be in great pain. For example, at present, if Bitcoin fluctuates around 67,000 for two or three days, there will be gains if you go long on altcoins. If Bitcoin falls back to 65,000, altcoins will also fall by 5 or 10 points. In other words, there is actually a certain lag between altcoins and Bitcoin. This lag does not mean that altcoins will rise when Bitcoin rises, but that altcoins will continue to rise or fall when Bitcoin fluctuates.

Opened 40 positions waiting for the waterfall.

The price of coins goes up and down, changing every minute and every second. Our ancestors left a saying, "Respond to changes with constancy, and use static to control dynamics." So I think that the high winning rate of contracts must be to control risks and use static to control dynamics. What is static to control dynamics? Take Bitcoin as an example. I think the price of coins is high at this time. I open a short position and see 63,000, and control the liquidation line to 100,000 or even 200,000 or 300,000. Then I will not be bothered by the increase in the price of coins. Eat and drink when you should. Don't rush to add positions, because every increase in position will increase your risk. And each increase in position can only be a little bit. If you open a short position at 65,000, you can add a little position at 67,000 or 69,000. The higher it goes, the wider the interval of adding positions. At the same time, the stop profit line should also move upward.

The cup smashing is a signal, the opportunity to go high has come...

After holding on for so many days, it finally came down. The victory belongs to the Air Force. It's just that the funding rate has been deducted a bit too much in the past two days. The high-altitude strategy in May remains unchanged. Go short on highs. Let's see tomorrow's US CPI data. If the data is positive, go long in the short term. At a certain height, go short. You can decide this height by yourself, it may be 63,000 or 65,000. If the data is negative, see you at 58,000.