NOT's daily K-line has entered a narrow range of fluctuations after experiencing three consecutive downward peaks, showing that the current strength of both long and short sides is gradually balancing. However, there is no obvious start signal yet, and the trend opportunities are not clear. Based on the large-scale structure, I provide several key points for reference:
The sharp drop rebound range is between 622570, and the short-term suppression is at 813. It is recommended to pay attention to the rebound after breaking through the suppression level, with the target at 868882, looking for gaming opportunities. #NOT🔥🔥🔥
After the L1 track and the modular track, the AI track also began to accelerate its development!
At present, the leading currencies in the AI field, such as TAO and FET, have successfully broken through the bottom area. Among them, TAO performed particularly strongly due to the support of Grayscale.
Relatively speaking, other non-leading AI concept coins, such as RNDR and LPT, have not yet shown upward momentum. Therefore, we should give priority to investing in leading currencies!
Opinion: Why we are firmly optimistic about Ethereum
Are there still ETH bulls in the market? ETH’s market sentiment turned extremely pessimistic again in the fourth quarter of this year.
As ETH revenue and burns decline, the narrative about “ultrasonic money” no longer seems to be valid. L1 activity needs to be boosted, but most of it is being diverted to L2, which does not clearly benefit ETH in the community's view. Crypto KOL DCinvestor hopes to re-establish ETH as a programmable currency, which is the only important narrative at the moment, advocating ETH as the core collateral without paying much attention to revenue and destruction indicators. Chainlink community liaison Zach Rynes countered that stablecoins have proven to be more effective programmable currencies than ETH. As more and more L2 solutions use their native tokens as gas fees, the narrative of ETH as "digital oil" is also weakening, and even builders are worried.
Last week, the Fed's policy adjustment enabled ETH to successfully recapture $2,500 and boosted the performance of ETH/BTC.
According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, if ETH/BTC can recover to the short-term trend of the 50-day moving average, a bottoming rebound may occur.
Despite the debut of the US spot ETH ETF in the third quarter, ETH still fell 25% during the period and hit a record low on the ETH/BTC pair, reflecting the weak performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin.
However, the Fed's turn helped altcoins to recover to $2,500 after three consecutive days of gains. In addition, the US spot ETH ETF has a net inflow of $8.2 million in the last two trading days, which further supports the rise of ETH.
So, when will ETH/BTC bottom out?
Nevertheless, Cowen is cautious about the strength of ETH and the bottom of ETH/BTC. He pointed out that according to the market trends in 2016 and 2019, if ETH/BTC fails to recover above the 50-day moving average, the bottoming is still not easy to achieve.
He mentioned: "After the crashes in 2016 and 2019, ETH/BTC bottomed out when it rose back above the 50-day moving average. Therefore, as long as ETH/BTC is below the 50-day moving average, there is still downside risk."
However, if ETH/BTC rebounds and breaks through the 50-day moving average of 0.04255, there may be a chance of recovery. "Once it exceeds the 50-day moving average, I think the probability of bottoming out will increase significantly."
When it is above the 50-day moving average, it usually indicates bullish momentum in the short term.
At the same time, some whales have also begun to profit from the recent ETH price increase. According to Spot On Chain data, a whale sold 15,000 ETH worth $38.4 million on Kraken, and the address sold several times in the third quarter, each time causing ETH to fall slightly.
Nevertheless, despite the recent rise in ETH prices, the net outflow of the overall exchange is gradually decreasing. This shows that the selling pressure on centralized exchanges is easing, which may provide support for the continued rise of ETH.
The reduction in selling pressure coincides with an increase in demand for Ethereum from U.S. investors, as reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index and recent U.S. ETH ETF inflows. However, as the euphoria associated with the Fed’s rate cuts fades, it remains to be seen whether Ethereum’s recovery can be sustained.