The interest rate was cut by 50 basis points in the early morning, and it did not indicate an increased possibility of economic recession, so it is a positive. The big cake did not rise first and then fall as many people thought. This interest rate cut represents the official entry into the interest rate cut cycle. In the long run, this is a good thing. Combined with the current technical disk, it is still bullish at present.
The target mentioned above remains unchanged. The following larger target is around 63000/65000/68000
Entering the interest rate cut does not mean that liquidity will come back immediately. It requires a gradual process. Therefore, based on past experience, it is still necessary to look at the US stock market. The US stock market has also experienced a big drop at the beginning of the interest rate cut in the past, and it is likely to be around the second interest rate cut. November is the second interest rate cut meeting. So I personally think that the market should be OK in September and October, and we should be more cautious after November. The real big market should be next year. These are all predictions. There is probably a trend idea, and the specifics still need to follow the specifics.
I would like to remind you that those who do swing trading must pay attention to themselves, and don’t be too greedy. It is best not to keep holding a full position. Reduce positions when the market is high and replenish them when the market is low.
After so long, the price of Bitcoin has finally returned to above 60,000 yuan. This wave of rise is mainly driven by macroeconomics. Last night, the US released the September consumer confidence index, which created a 4-month high and expected short-term inflation to fall to a 4-year low. If the CPI data the day before yesterday still made the market worry about the problem of inflation stickiness, then last night's confidence index means that the inflation problem has been completely solved, which makes the Fed more confident in cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next week. The forecast given by CME also confirms this. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 50%, and without the constraints of inflation, the Fed's ability to cope with recession is also stronger. This is the main reason for the simultaneous rebound of US stocks and the currency market last night.
In addition, it can be seen from the strong income of Bitcoin ETF last night of 263 million US dollars that external funds have full confidence in encryption. Last night, Grayscale GBTC had positive capital inflows. I remember that this is the second time that Bitcoin ETF has been listed since January. The last time GBTC funds flowed in was two months ago. In addition, MicroStrategy even added a large position last night, spending $1.11 billion to buy 18,300 Bitcoins at an average price of 60,408. This shows that in the eyes of institutions, an upward trend has been formed, and the previous risk aversion operation that lasted for nearly a month can be lifted. On Monday, I expect various institutions to continue to enter the market to buy, because BlackRock did not even make a move last night, and the IBIT capital inflow was 0. I believe there will be action on Monday, because tonight and tomorrow night are both closed, so Friday's capital inflow data will guide the market in the next two days. It is expected that Bitcoin will remain stable above 6w.
Continue planning, waiting for a huge pump next month, don’t know what to buy together👋
LIVE
比特怪咖- BNB2100
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Last week, I arranged $CKB at 0.0074, and now I have a floating profit of 30%. Should I leave? 😎
September will be a good month for arrangement. Historically, the market will rebound in October. The arrangement this month will yield a great harvest next month🥱
Last week, I arranged $CKB at 0.0074, and now I have a floating profit of 30%. Should I leave? 😎
September will be a good month for arrangement. Historically, the market will rebound in October. The arrangement this month will yield a great harvest next month🥱
On September 18, fomc, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates.
Observe the last similar preventive interest rate cut, July 31, 2019:
The US stock market fell on the same day, fell for 4 consecutive days, stepped back on the 200-day moving average, and then used a month of shocks to bottom out.
At that time, BTC had just fallen from the top of the bull market in 2019, and the correlation coefficient between its trend and the US stock market was very low. After the interest rate cut, it rose for a period of time and rebounded to the second highest.
From 21 to 24 ETFs, the correlation coefficient between currency and macroeconomics is getting higher and higher, and it is difficult to use the trend of 2019 to compare; This time it is more likely to follow the trend of the US stock market. Before and after the interest rate cut on the 18th, the risk is very high.
If the currency can bottom out in one month after the interest rate cut, it is also a good time to enter the market.
The weekend market was too dull. Bitcoin trading volume showed signs of a bear market and shrank severely, but we are still confident about the future market. We have tested the bottom twice in the short term. Although there is no obvious support at present, from the perspective of the altcoin market, the altcoin did not continue to fall with Bitcoin. Instead, it maintained a sideways adjustment or a slight upward trend.
As I said before, as long as Bitcoin tests the bottom twice and stabilizes, the altcoin will take off. Focus on the top DeFi!