It is reported that at 21:00 New York time on June 27, 2024 (09:00 Beijing time on June 28, 2024), the US election will usher in the first face-to-face debate between Trump and Biden. This spark-flying war of words will undoubtedly be the most intriguing political event of the week.
CNN is the host of the first live televised debate of the 2024 US presidential election. The debate will last 90 minutes, with two commercials in between, which is equivalent to the debaters' rest time. Biden and Trump are the oldest candidates ever to participate in the US presidential election: Biden is 81 years old and Trump is 78 years old. They hold opposite views on key issues such as immigration, abortion, and the Gaza War. This debate will provide them with an opportunity to present their respective attack lines and policy arguments in front of the American people.
Compared with previous debates, this debate has several noteworthy details. First, the debaters have to stand and speak throughout the whole process, and the two elderly candidates may face certain physical pressure; second, there will be no audience in the studio during the debate, which means there will be no applause or booing to interrupt the speech; then, except for speaking, the debaters' microphones will be muted to prevent endless quarrels caused by interruptions from both sides; finally, no props or prepared notes are allowed, and only a pen, a piece of paper and a bottle of water are provided on site, which requires the two to improvise at all times to a large extent.
The Biden campaign team has put forward the requirement of audience and muting the speakers, which they say is to "control the time and ensure a civilized discussion". In the 2020 debate, Trump interrupted Biden's speech many times, and Biden once yelled at him to shut up, which made the atmosphere very tense. According to the latest requirements, once a speaker exceeds the stipulated time, the debate moderator can intervene and turn off the speaker's microphone.
In addition, this debate breaks tradition in two ways. First, the organizer is no longer the bipartisan Presidential Debate Commission (CPD). Since Biden and Trump had two fierce confrontations in debates in 2020, which attracted widespread criticism from the American people, the CPD, as the organizer, was considered to have deliberately created a "big scene" to attract attention, so this time CNN took over the hosting.
Second, the debate was held earlier than usual in late September and October, close to election day. This also shows that this year's US election is not following the routine at all, and anything can happen until the last minute.
According to sources, Biden is currently rehearsing mock debates with his assistants to prepare for the official competition. Trump, on the other hand, stressed that he intends to improvise and said that Trump is still busy preparing for the next campaign event.
First debate on economic issues
In the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden, economic issues will surely be one of the focuses. Both sides hope to take the initiative on economic topics, and it is expected that inflation, employment, fiscal policy, etc. will be the focus of the debate. Cryptocurrency, as an emerging financial technology, is also likely to become one of the focuses of the debate between the two sides.
It is undeniable that public opinion is more concerned about Biden. Some people in both the Democratic and Republican parties have pointed out that if Biden shows signs of aphasia or "random replies" (meaning outrageous or random replies) during the live broadcast, it could be a heavy blow to his support rate.
The aggressive Trump is more likely to use this opportunity to attract voters in swing states. Bill Russo, a former Biden administration official, said that as long as Trump can pretend to be a reasonable politician in the spotlight, he will get huge rewards.
Although the U.S. economy has shown surprising resilience, there is a clear difference in the economic situation in the eyes of economists and the general public, which has raised questions about Biden's economic policies.
For the general public, the main characteristics of the current US economy are high housing prices, high inflation, and a tight housing market. These factors have obviously aroused people's dissatisfaction with Biden and provided a breakthrough for Trump to attack Biden.
Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani said that Trump will compare the inflation level, geopolitics and border issues in the United States during his term and now, and voters will easily feel that the current environment is much worse than 3-4 years ago. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and Republican Congressman Byron Donalds expressed confidence in this, saying that Trump only needs to discuss Biden's economic policies without attacking Biden's son's criminal behavior, which is enough to cause a huge impact.
Trump is also likely to mention economic issues such as Biden's climate infrastructure spending and the growing federal deficit.
Biden's team said it would focus on the negative impact of Trump's tariffs, possible federal reserve interventions, and the prospect of corporate tax cuts. In addition, they will criticize Trump's stance on favoring big companies and billionaires, but in comparison, Biden does not seem to have as much room for debate on economic issues as Trump.
The Democrats also pointed out that abortion rights and democratic issues may be more favorable to Biden; at the same time, the felony charges facing Trump will also be an issue that Biden needs to reiterate again and again, and he will try to portray Trump as a felon who only cares about himself.
The first debate in June was the first confrontation between the two sides, and they will face off again in September. Observers generally believe that this round of debates is unlikely to directly determine the winner, but it is crucial to the subsequent propaganda strategies of both sides.
Key points of the US presidential election
In the 2024 US presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of discussion and a bargaining chip for voters. The attitudes and policy proposals of the two main candidates, Trump and Biden, towards cryptocurrency not only directly affect their voter base, but may also have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market. Especially at key election nodes, candidates' policy declarations and campaign activities may cause drastic market fluctuations. The following are some key time nodes in this US presidential election:
June 27: First debate
Presidential debates often have a significant impact on election outcomes, and the first debate is particularly important. Candidates’ attitudes and policy proposals toward cryptocurrencies will be more exposed in the debates, and the market may react quickly based on the outcome of the debates.
July 15-18: Republican National Convention
The market could get a boost if Trump further clarifies his pro-cryptocurrency policies at the Republican convention, where candidates will formally accept the nomination and outline their campaign platforms.
August 19-22: Democratic National Convention
Similar to the Republican convention, the Democratic convention will see Biden formally accept the nomination. If the Biden team announces new cryptocurrency-friendly policies at the convention, it could have a positive impact on the market.
September 10: Second debate
The second debate will be an important opportunity for the candidates to further clash. Any discussion of cryptocurrency policy could cause market volatility.
November 5: National general election
The election voting day is the most critical time node. The election results will directly affect the direction of cryptocurrency policies in the next four years, and the market may fluctuate violently after the election results are announced.
December 2024: Electoral College votes
The Electoral College vote, which ultimately confirms the president-elect, is less important than Election Day but could still move markets, especially if the results are disputed.
January 20, 2025: Presidential Inauguration Day
The president-elect will be officially sworn in on this day. The new president’s inaugural address and subsequent policy announcements will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
Web3 Voting Competition
The 2024 US presidential election is about to kick off. For the first time, cryptocurrency has become an important topic of discussion in the election, and its importance and influence have reached unprecedented heights. At the same time, crypto companies such as Coinbase and Ripple, as well as crypto-supporting venture capital institutions such as a16z, have announced that they will inject capital into the cryptocurrency super PAC, trying to gain more voice for the crypto industry through "money power". Whether it is Trump or Biden, both major candidates must face this rapidly emerging emerging market and incorporate their attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.
It is reported that people of color and young people were the key to Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Institutional polls show that the current cryptocurrency ownership rate of these two groups is higher than that of other groups. Whether they can win their support has become an important aspect of the struggle between Trump and Biden. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not only an investment tool, but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Especially among young voters and technology geeks, cryptocurrency has a broad support base. Therefore, both Trump and Biden must include policy proposals on cryptocurrency in their campaign strategies to win the support of these voters.
The government's policy attitude directly affects the price fluctuations and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The US government's policy attitude towards cryptocurrencies has a great impact on the trend of the global market. As a global financial center, the US policy changes not only directly affect the domestic market, but also have an important demonstration effect on global investors and regulatory policies of other countries.
In terms of supervision, the US government has always been cautious and conservative, focusing mainly on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors and preventing financial crimes. The US government regulates the cryptocurrency market through multiple agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).
Donald John Trump
During the Trump administration, the U.S. government's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone a complex evolution. Initially, the Trump administration was skeptical and negative about cryptocurrencies, believing that they lack intrinsic value and are easily used for illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly stated on Twitter that he did not like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying that they are "not currencies, their value is highly volatile and has no real basis." He also emphasized that cryptocurrencies may be used for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative attitude had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market in the early days of Trump's administration. The market reaction at the time was relatively negative, and many investors were uneasy about the future cryptocurrency policy of the United States.
But in the 2024 election, Trump's attitude changed 180 degrees. He not only publicly expressed his support for the development of cryptocurrencies, but also made remarks about "ensuring that the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin happens in the United States." He also said that if he is re-elected president, he will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of "Silk Road", on his first day in office. Trump also accepted cryptocurrency donations during the campaign, trying to win voter support through policy adjustments. As of June, the value of crypto assets held by Trump's address has exceeded $30 million, thanks to the growth of his Meme coins.
However, on June 4, Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president to be convicted in U.S. history. This verdict adds an unpredictable new variable to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
According to people familiar with the matter, Trump is considering giving a speech at the Bitcoin conference in July 2024. The annual event, called "Bitcoin 2024," will bring together the big names in the cryptocurrency industry. If he is finally confirmed to attend the conference, it will be the first time Trump has spoken publicly about cryptocurrency.
Analysts believe that Trump's move is to attract support from voters in the crypto and technology circles and dominate the 2024 election. During his tenure, Trump publicly supported cryptocurrencies and criticized excessive regulation for hindering the United States' competitive advantage in this field. Many people in the crypto community also tend to support Trump because they believe he is beneficial to the development of the industry.
Joe Biden
For most of the time since taking office, the Biden administration has been conservative and cautious about cryptocurrencies, focusing mainly on strengthening supervision and preventing risks. In the early days of its presidency, the Biden administration strengthened supervision of the cryptocurrency market through agencies such as the Treasury Department and the SEC, and issued a series of regulatory regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges and market participants.
As the election approaches, the Biden administration has gradually adjusted its policy stance. The Biden campaign has recently begun to contact some crypto industry experts, including crypto people that Biden has rejected in the past, to seek guidance on its crypto policy. On May 23, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21), which will transfer the regulatory power of digital currencies from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the more industry-friendly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). And it will more clearly define the standards that make crypto tokens securities or commodities. Biden announced that if the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill is passed, he will not veto the bill.
At the same time, the Biden administration is also increasing its attention to cryptocurrencies. Sources revealed that the Biden administration is looking for more cryptocurrency-friendly senior staff to win votes from the web3 community. For example, the White House recently hired former Coinbase employee Randy Guldobjectives as a digital asset consultant to assist the Biden administration in formulating policies on cryptocurrencies. In addition, Biden also found former Circle executive Brian Brooks as the new director of the Office of National Banking Supervision (OCC). These figures are considered to be the epitome of the Biden administration's search for "close comrades-in-arms" in the field of cryptocurrency. The Biden administration hopes to use the influence of these figures to win support in the Web3 field on the one hand, and to better guide and control the development of the cryptocurrency industry on the other.
Although Biden is also trying to restore his lost cryptocurrency-friendly image, it is still uncertain whether he can surpass Trump. Poll data shows that cryptocurrency investors tend to support the Republican Party. But the Biden administration is still trying to win the support of this group through more friendly policies. The Biden administration is seeking to find a balance between regulation and innovation to create an environment conducive to the development of cryptocurrency.
Summarize
There is no doubt that cryptocurrency has become one of the key issues in the 2024 US presidential election. Both camps are using this emerging industry to compete for votes, hoping to gain an advantage in the fierce election. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to other economic issues, such as inflation, employment and other factors that have a more direct impact on voters, which may also be the key to determining the outcome of the election.
In addition, historical data shows that the cryptocurrency market tends to experience large fluctuations in the year of the US presidential election. This is because political uncertainty affects investors' risk appetite, which in turn drives market changes. For example, after Trump was elected in 2016, the price of Bitcoin rose by more than 10% in a short period of time. Similarly, the cryptocurrency market also experienced some fluctuations before and after the 2020 election.
In the future, the policy orientation of the president-elect will have a profound impact on the development prospects of the cryptocurrency industry. If a crypto-friendly Republican is elected, the industry may receive more support and benefits; on the contrary, if a more conservative Democrat is elected, the industry may face more regulatory pressure.
In general, this election is an important opportunity to promote the further popularization and application of encryption technology. No matter which candidate wins, they need to face the challenges and opportunities brought by cryptocurrencies and formulate clearer and more friendly policies. This will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency and blockchain ecosystem. Crypto practitioners and investors should pay close attention to the subsequent policy trends and be fully prepared for future development.
