On June 26, the US dollar index was 105.806, up 0.16%; the US 10-year Treasury bond yield was 4.269%, up 0.69%. It should be noted that the US 2-year-10-year Treasury bond yield spread once exceeded negative 50 basis points, the first time this year, but then the degree of inversion was slightly reduced. Due to the ideal results of the 2-year Treasury bond auction, the 2-year Treasury bond yield fell back.

On the Fed side, Governor Cook said that if the economy performs in line with her expectations, the Fed will cut interest rates, but refused to disclose the specific time point. Knowing the exact level of the neutral interest rate is not an important factor in real-time decision-making. Governor Bowman said that he does not think there will be a rate cut this year and is willing to raise borrowing costs if necessary. (The speeches of the two governors are basically within the expectations guided by the dot plot. There is no need to panic. Be prepared for only one rate cut, be prepared for no rate cut, and be prepared for non-continuous rate cuts by hawks.)

On the Treasury side, Yellen expressed her views on housing inflation, recession and fiscal deficit in an interview with Yahoo Finance. In terms of housing inflation, the Treasury Department has allocated a budget of $100 million to support American families to ease housing pressure within three years, and has also introduced tax incentive policies, including income tax credits, low-income housing tax credits, and tax refunds for buying and selling houses; when it comes to inflation, she said she believes that inflation will fall back and reach the Fed's 2% inflation target next year. Rent inflation is the main reason why inflation cannot fall, because rental contracts are usually long. When high-priced rental contracts expire one after another, we will see a fall in rent inflation; if there is still no interest rate cut in September this year, Yellen believes that the possibility of a recession is small, US employment is strong, household consumption remains healthy, investment is strong, and there is no sign of a US economic recession. Regarding the fiscal deficit, Yellen said that long-term Treasury bonds will be issued in a predictable manner to avoid sudden changes in the issuance of long-term Treasury bonds that will cause market panic. President Biden has signed a bill to reduce the fiscal deficit, and his 2025 budget also proposed a plan to cut the fiscal deficit by $3 trillion in the next 10 years. If these plans are implemented, the probability of a debt crisis in the United States is low. Yellen believes that an important indicator for measuring fiscal sustainability is the proportion of interest expenditure on government debt to government revenue, and the current interest expenditure ratio is still at a normal level.

In terms of cryptocurrencies, as BTC ETF resumed inflows, Bitcoin returned to above $61,000, while Ethereum continued to maintain relative strength, with the current price above $3,300 and the Ethereum-Bitcoin exchange rate at 0.055. The altcoin rebounded, meme performed well, and WIF PEPE topped the list of gains.

In terms of U.S. stocks, boosted by Nvidia, the Nasdaq index rebounded to 17,717.65 points, up 1.26%; the S&P 500 rose 0.39% to close at 5,469.3 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.76% to close at 39,112.16 points.

In terms of AI stocks, Nvidia NVDA rose 6.76% to close at $126.09; Broadcom AVGO fell 0.72% to close at $1,580.79; Advanced Micro Computer SMCI rose 1.95% to close at $843.12; Intel INTC rose 0.56% to close at $30.74.

In terms of local stocks, GME rose 5.41% to close at $24.93; AMC rose 0.88% to close at $4.53; Faraday Future fell 18.71% to close at $0.265.

In terms of Bitcoin ETFs, GBTC saw an outflow of US$30.3 million, FBTC saw an inflow of US$48.8 million, ARKB saw an outflow of US$6.2 million, BITB saw an inflow of US$15.2 million, BTCO saw an outflow of US$2.4 million, and HODL saw an inflow of US$3.5 million. The total inflow on June 25 was US$31 million, which was the first net inflow after seven consecutive days of net outflows.