UBS economists believe that US economic data will continue to weaken in the coming months, and emphasize that the end of the Fed's current easing cycle is more important than the starting point. UBS economists reiterated their outlook for a soft landing for the US economy on Monday. The bank expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September and believes that the market may have misjudged the extent of the Fed's future rate cuts.

UBS concluded: "Overall, we think the market underestimates the number of times the Fed may cut interest rates during this cycle." The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at its June meeting, and the median forecast of the updated dot plot shows that the Fed will only cut interest rates once by the end of the year, by 25 basis points, down from three times in March, which has led some to worry that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged until December.

Zijian's comment: The Fed has always expected a rate cut, but it has not. I hope to complete the rate cut this year, and a rate cut in September is highly likely. The election is coming soon.