Original author: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
The market continues to fluctuate in the range of $60,000 to $70,000, paying off debts in order to reach a new all-time high ahead of schedule
Market Week
BTC continued to adjust downward in the short term, and as of June 24, it once fell below $61,000. Last week, we predicted that the market would enter a short-term clearing phase of weak equilibrium, and the first target of clearing would be Bitcoin miners. As the price of the currency fell, more and more miners sold all their daily output (maximum supply 450 coins/day) and also sold their solid inventory.
Unfortunately, liquidation is often accompanied by a certain degree of stampede. The short-term investor cost line (raised to $64,000), which has repeatedly received strong support over the past year, has not been effectively resisted. After falling below $61,000, the distance to the largest adjustment position of $56,500 since BTC's historical high is only 8%.
During this period, the news that the German government cleared confiscated BTC and Mt.Gox repaid investors BTC was just a little negative boost to the weak market. More importantly, the Federal Reserve continued its previous hawkish remarks and further strengthened the expectation of one interest rate cut this year. The strong Nasdaq index also adjusted, and Nvidia fell more than 5% in a single day. In a fragile market, every external factor is important. But it can be said with certainty that the core reason is that the entire market is still paying off the historical high that came ahead of schedule. Historically, BTC has experienced long adjustment periods before and after the three halvings. The adjustment after the last halving lasted more than 6 months, and this rapid rise is no exception. The good news is that the market once again provides investors with a window period to get on board calmly.
Supply and demand structure
USD stablecoins had an inflow of $708 million last week, more than double the previous week. USDT and USDC had the same frequency, with inflows of $375 million and $333 million respectively. But it should be noted that the stock of stablecoins on exchanges has declined. ETFs recorded outflows on all four trading days of the week, with a single-day outflow of more than $100 million and a total outflow of more than $500 million. This sell-off is one of the reasons for the downward price. One point that needs to be corrected is that institutional holdings in ETFs only account for about 22%, and the main force is hedge funds. When buying spot ETFs, they often open short positions on CME to hedge, which is far from contributing direct momentum to the long-term rise of the market. At the same time, retail investors who hold more than 75% of the positions have a typical "chasing up and killing down" effect. In short, the upward momentum brought by US ETFs is temporarily in a sluggish state, which requires a long enough time to digest. For CME contracts, open interest remains high at around $10 billion, down more than 10% from its peak. But volume has fallen to around $1.7 billion, close to the low of $1.6 billion in early May.
On-chain data
BTC on-chain data continued to be sluggish, with new addresses and Fees revenue remaining low, and Transactions and value transfers rising slightly, which is suspected to be related to the activeness of Runes and the surrender and profit-taking of long and short hands.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator
The eMerge data engine shows that the bull market index is 0.125, and the market has once again entered a bull market dormant period.
About EMC Labs
EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring welfare to mankind.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
