Ether ETF Launch Already Priced In? Analyst Predicts Drop to $3,000 Due to This Crucial Factor

Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, believes that the market has already priced in the launch of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In an X (Twitter) post, Kang noted that the current activity in the Ethereum derivatives market shows a lack of market interest. He stated that Ethereum’s open interest in the days leading to the ETF launch is low compared to what happened with Bitcoin.

https://t.co/On2KWjAlLx

— Andrew Kang (@Rewkang) June 23, 2024

Ether is trading at $3,306 at 02:00 a.m. after a 4% drop in the last 24 hours. 

Demand for Ether ETFs Will Remain Low

In the X post, Kang appeared to agree with Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas,  who has previously stated that spot Ethereum ETFs will not attract much interest compared to Bitcoin.

Kang noted that Ether ETFs will only attract around 30% of BTC’s flows. Such numbers stem from traditional financial institutions’ lack of interest in these products.

“Traders on the street had a great trade with BTC, and they tend to have good information, so if they are not repeating it for ETH then it must be good reason potentially implying weak flow intel,” Kang noted.

Kang further noted that the sentiments of crypto-native traders and traditional finance institutions regarding Ether differed. While those in the crypto space were much more optimistic about Ethereum, the asset was less attractive to traditional financial institutions.

With these dynamics in mind, Ether likely might not record a significant price run after the ETF approvals, as demand will be notably low. Kang predicts a drop to the $2,400-$3,000 range. However, he notes that ETH could hit $3,800 amid market hype before the ETF goes live. 

Ethereum is Like A Tech Stock

Kang also likened ETH’s price action to tech stocks. He compared Ethereum to companies such as Intel. While Intel witnessed notable price action in its early days, slowed innovation and rising competition impacted its market share.

If TradFi views Ethereum as a tech stock, the projected growth is significantly low. He also opines that if the Ethereum ecosystem were to gain adoption, its fundamentals would need to change.

However, not everyone agreed with Kang’s comparison of Ethereum and tech stocks. One X user said Ethereum differed significantly from tech stocks like Intel. For instance, Ethereum was a platform and not a product. Moreover, Ethereum’s growth cannot be viewed under the same lens as traditional firms, as one also needs to account for the network’s growth.