I believe $BTC has entered or is approaching a mid-term bottom
I am not a fool, so I did not go long all the way. Realizing the oversupply
Here I share my reasons for going long. A message of hope👇
Before anyone says I’m exaggerating, I admit I’m not.
Bitcoin is down 10% from its local high. Altcoins (consensus coins, no VC coins, non-inflation coins) are down 50-70%
- The best performing sector over the past month was DeFi, boosted by the Ethereum ETF. The sector fell 18%
- Holders are in capitulation and are in frustration. Most "public whales/leaderboard" traders have given back 7-8 figures of gains to the market in the past two weeks, only the strong will hold on
“The sand is wet not because of the massive supply of scam VC tokens, but because of the blood of a once-powerful bull market”
- Funding rates are negative across the board. Funding rates on major exchanges are neutral or negative at low points
“But, Ethena, ETF buyers - CME delta hedge basis arbitrage” - Funding by major players on altcoins that are not delta neutral strategies is negative on the dip
- It can be concluded that most altcoin holders no longer use leverage to go long their favorite altcoins on 5-10% dips, as they are used to doing so throughout the bull run
- Example: WIF, which was representative of the "risk-on" environment for several months, has now fallen from its highs to a maximum low of -70%. CC - CryptoDonAlt Chad Short Top
Now, this is more like a backlash from complacency.
- Seasonal/range/technical factors suggest a short-term bounce is imminent
- $BTC has now been in range for 110 days and we are at the value zone low. I think this is a good area to bounce off even if we first target the exact $63,000 level
- It has been 9 weeks since the halving. History shows that 10 weeks after the halving, the market will see lower inflation as a positive for prices.
As for the halving point – don’t expect the same fractal as past halvings. History may not repeat itself in the post-ETF era
News Catalyst:
- German government sells seized Bitcoins
- Gox supply will soon hit the open market
- CTFC-related FUD
Just as the positive news about Ethereum ETFs failed to push us past $72,000. Billions of supply are flooding the market and the market is pricing in a $600 drop
- Too comfortable and general market positioning
- Over the past 5 days, there has been a continuous long liquidation, with many shorts often buying at local lows and getting rewarded
- The current low of $633k was caused by a large number of spot buyers aggressively pushing prices higher. We need "some" spot buyers to be aggressive and we have a recipe for a massive short squeeze
The rotation within the same sector is becoming more and more brutal. For example, the Eth beta
The same coin is bid and then sold immediately, a phenomenon that only occurs in illiquid markets where the same hot money keeps spinning
I think now is the time to start moving higher, with altcoins and Ethereum set to outperform the broader market, especially with the support of an Ethereum ETF
Ethereum gas prices are at their lowest levels in years.
All of this was done while L2s activity was at ATH.
Ethereum can finally scale.
- Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs now have history and fractals that traders try to front-run
- Every ETF announcement, regardless of expectations, with leverage available for news trading
- At these levels, $ETH holders have proven their hands aren’t shaking - despite overcrowded trading
- This is not a good thing from an ETF perspective, but as you can see from points 1 and 3 above, speculative power will remain in ETH for the time being, while funds move from one currency to another, ultimately seeking refuge in ETH at some point
- People will continue to try to leverage long ETH to drive the price down until they no longer believe in the first 50% gain of the BTC ETF. The single most painful scenario based on other market factors I see is if ETH inflows exceed market expectations and allow ETH beta to become a force for the upside before the inevitable sell-off on news/Grayscale sell-off hits the market
- Still thinks ETH will be a painful yet glorious roller coaster ride no matter what
Interesting weekly chart for $ETH.
Clearly, there is a major battle going on in the region. It is an ongoing battle, and the recent market volatility is the result of it, with many consequences.
Trust L2 and wait for ETH ETF
Even though we know the market is very depressed, we are still hyping ETH spot ETF
Will $ARB $OP $STRK benefit?
This market is crazy and it only takes a reason or a story to create a boom in the storm.
The Narrative ETF, $ETH beta and its L2 family are ready to suddenly stand up at any time.
Because when new traditional funds flow into Ethereum, congestion can easily occur, forcing L2 to support smoother circulation for activities in the ecosystem.
June is over, especially the airdrop phase of $ZRO and $ZK. Since then, $ZK and $STRK have become the L2 duo with the most raised funds but the most tight funds and the most dead chains in the Ethereum ecosystem.
It seems that $OP and $ARB are still two outstanding L2 students and lead the ETH L2 narrative, with $ARB also leading in TVL
Following closely behind are Base and Blast, which also have busy ecosystems and are said to be ready 😁
The market is already overloaded with L2, let’s focus on the top
$ARB $OP is the best, $STRK $ZK wish you good luck
